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Author: JWR1945a One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 74759  
Subject: Re: They Got It Wrong Date: 6/20/2008 5:15 AM
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This turns out to be far superior to the liquidation strategies.
For all time????

Perhaps for recent history this is true, but I don't believe it has always been that way for the past---why would it be that way for all of the future?


It should be. Logically. It certainly has been since 1950 when companies became serious about retaining dividends, keeping payout ratios below 100%.

The key is that the mathematics changes when you make withdrawals. The probability distribution of dividends is stable, capital appreciation is highly volatile.

Look, you can't just make a handwaving argument and expect it to be accepted. That is the *starting* point of the discussion, not the *ending* point. Where is the monte-carlo analysis? Where is the historical analysis? You have to back up your argument with data, no just mere assertion.

I have a whole web site in which I establish every detail. It has over 600 pages of research over the past six years. I am not hand waving. I have done the equivalent of the Trinity Study dozens of times. I have documented my findings. I have made them available for scrutiny.

I do all this at my own expense, without advertising of any kind. I make my calculators available for free download from my Yahoo briefcase.

I generally use the Historical Sequence method although I have also developed Monte Carlo simulators (such as the Scenario Surfer).

Have fun.

John Walter Russell
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