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Author: rationalwalk Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 211790  
Subject: Re: Still cheap at 4 year high Date: 10/4/2012 6:16 PM
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Those of us who went through these experiences, and the subsequent agonized reflection, last time, may be all too quick to sell out at 1.3 or 1.4 BV this time... which could prove to be another big mistake.

I agree that this is a risk. I'm not sure what the best solution really is, but my approach is to have in place a plan to sell a specified number of shares at intervals between approximately 1.35x book and 1.65x book except for a set amount of shares that I do not plan to sell at almost any valuation level (well, maybe at 2x book or higher).

Your recollection regarding the speed of the late 2007 share price increase matches my own recollection and experience. It happened quickly and I did not have any prepared selling plan in place. But that's probably not the real reason I failed to sell a significant number of shares. I believe the main reason was a combination of raising my IV estimate as the share price rallied (changing to more aggressive assumptions - essentially allowing Mr. Market to influence my bullishness) and my desire to avoid paying the capital gains tax.
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