I'm not here to give you a "buy" or "sell" recommendation , no , I'm giving you the Adefovir - HBV facts we know so far , and eventually it's up to you to decide whether or not you will buy Gilead . Gilead's HIV drug is the same drug they are using for the Hepatitis B Virus trials . The drug is known as Adefovir Dipivoxil .Important to know : Gilead canceled clinical trials for HIV because their drug was too toxic , however for HIV they used 60 mg and 120 mg once per day , but for HBV it's only 5 mg , 30 mg and 60 mg once per day , thus it is expected to have less side effects . I think it would be best to compare Adefovir with Lamivudine because this one is already on the market for HBV . (and for HIV -- better known as 3TC) Note 1 : Lamivudine is a nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor and Adefovir is a nucleotide rever.... .For HIV , there are 6 such nucleoside .... on the market , but there's not even one nucleotide ... on the market !! Note 2 : obviously , there's no phase III data available . But let's have a look :You should know that in HBV trials , the 3 most important markers are :- loss of HBV DNA - Loss of HBeAg = Hepatitis B e antigen- normalization of ALT levels = enzyme which is an indicator of liver damage . Lamivudine = Heptodin = Zeffix :----------------------------------------------After 52 weeks of treatment , 52 % of lamivudine recipients responded to the treatment . (100mg a day)-- Loss of HBeAg in serum was noted in 32 %-- Sustained suppression of serum HBV DNA to undetectable levels in 44 %-- Sustained normalization of serum ALT levels in 41 % and they were less likely to have increased hepatic fibrosis . -- 16 weeks after stopping the treatment HBeAg returned-- Viral suppression is effective only during therapy -- Viral resistance ( = mutations) to lamivudine has been observed ! In fact , mutations appear after 40 weeks of treatment . Gilead's drug for HBV : Adefovir Dipivoxil :----------------------------------------------- HBV DNA fell below detectable levels with 30 mg daily dose in 67 % of patients . -- After 24 weeks : 27 % of patients in the 30 mg and 60 mg dose arms lost HBeAg and 20 % seroconverted . -- I couldn't find info about the ALT levels .-- To data , researchers have been unable to identify resistant hepatitis B viral isolates associated with this drug . In addition , in vitro studies have demonstrated potent antiviral activity against all known lamivudine - and resistant HBV strains . Is all this good or bad news ? I don't know . Adefovir 24 weeks --> no mutations Zeffix 40 weeks --> mutations .Important to note : In the case of Zeffix , longterm therapy is needed ! I assume this will be the same for Adefovir .Also , nothing is/was mentioned about possible side effects . In the past , it has been estimated that Zeffix can achieve annual sales of over $ 300 million in 2000 and over $ 500 million in 2001 on the Hepatitis market . I suggest you take a good look their sales number now .Note : BCHE developed the drug , but I believe Glaxo Smithkline markets the drug . BCHE receives royalties on sales between 12 - 15 % . Some of you on this board mentioned GILD's flu drug .Tamiflu looks okay . Gilead will receive royalty's off of Roche's sales .I believe analysts are expecting to see $ 170 million in sales a year . Analysts have been wrong before , so it could be higheror lower .
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