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Author: mungofitch Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 214658  
Subject: Re: Updated Tilson Presentation Date: 12/13/2012 11:26 AM
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Tilson's IV estimate is $180K

Seems a little more reasonable than his figures usually do.

For earnings, he pencils in $8000 pretax plus $600 cyclically adjusted underwriting profit, total $8600.
FWIW that's 13.5% higher than my $7236 pretax plus $344, total $7580.
He used a figure for underwriting profit that implies -1.39% cost of float versus my -0.8%.
The derivation of my figures is described here boards.fool.com/valuation-agrave-la-tilson-30414581.aspx
Using my earnings and his multiples you get a value of $173,473.

He actually uses a higher earnings multiple than mine: 8x pretax earnings rather than the 9x I use.
That's extremely conservative on his part.
A P/E of 12.3x is pretty darned good for that set of businesses.

On the other hand, mine is more conservative mainly due to placing a 20%
haircut on investments per share due to the perpetual drag of cash.

It's pretty much impossible these days to come up with a value figure under $150,000.

Jim
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