Tilson's IV estimate is $180KSeems a little more reasonable than his figures usually do.For earnings, he pencils in $8000 pretax plus $600 cyclically adjusted underwriting profit, total $8600.FWIW that's 13.5% higher than my $7236 pretax plus $344, total $7580.He used a figure for underwriting profit that implies -1.39% cost of float versus my -0.8%.The derivation of my figures is described here boards.fool.com/valuation-agrave-la-tilson-30414581.aspxUsing my earnings and his multiples you get a value of $173,473.He actually uses a higher earnings multiple than mine: 8x pretax earnings rather than the 9x I use.That's extremely conservative on his part.A P/E of 12.3x is pretty darned good for that set of businesses.On the other hand, mine is more conservative mainly due to placing a 20% haircut on investments per share due to the perpetual drag of cash.It's pretty much impossible these days to come up with a value figure under $150,000.Jim
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