Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (11) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Next Thread
Author: scapc Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 18156  
Subject: Time to buy? Date: 9/19/2006 12:03 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
Well, is it time to buy? The bad news has got to be factored in, or am I dreaming?
Print the post Back To Top
Author: AlejandroOrtiz Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11155 of 18156
Subject: Re: Time to buy? Date: 9/19/2006 3:40 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
"Well, is it time to buy? The bad news has got to be factored in, or am I dreaming?"

--------------------

Welcome to the Fool!

Layoffs are very bad news for the workers but I think Wall Street will respond kindly to something that needed to be done. I'm not sure all the bad news has been factored in the price yet. It may go down a bit more.

There's a lot of bad news out there. However, I'm as bullish on Ford as I was on GM when I bought in at $18.90 in Dec. 2005. I think there a good upside here.

That's my opinion.

Alejandro

Print the post Back To Top
Author: GeezerRob Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Home Fool Supernova Phoenix 1
Mission Team Member CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11156 of 18156
Subject: Re: Time to buy? Date: 9/19/2006 7:41 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 3
"Layoffs are very bad news for the workers but I think Wall Street will respond kindly to something that needed to be done. I'm not sure all the bad news has been factored in the price yet. It may go down a bit more.

There's a lot of bad news out there. However, I'm as bullish on Ford as I was on GM when I bought in at $18.90 in Dec. 2005. I think there a good upside here.

That's my opinion.

Alejandro"

Well....*my* opinion was that the stock would *pop* with the announcement, so you know what *my* opinion is worth! ;)

That being said, I see a *lot* more bad news coming as Ford is poised to post some really horrendous losses each quarter for quite some time. I don't intend to sell what I've got [unless a pop *does* materialize] as I still think that the market's reception to the new Edge...along with increased sales of the Fusion platform (AWD, bigger engine on MKZ) could cause a little pop. *Then* I'll sell 80% pronto!

*But*, would I buy more now?

Man...I can name several other holdings of mine with more short and long term upside and less risk that I'd add to in an instant if I could....but the Ford stock is in a part of my Ford 401k...which only allows purchase of some mutual funds, money market and Ford. (Fyi: Ford is <10% of 401k, <3% of total portfolio).

So....I'd wait until Ford looks like it will survive...which *isn't* NOW. If the company turns around....there will be plenty of time to climb aboard....it'll be a slow painful climb up...assuming it comes.

Rob
Aboard a Ford racing down Pike's Peak....without brakes....time to do a "Flintstone"....




Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: dueyafa Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11157 of 18156
Subject: Re: Time to buy? Date: 9/20/2006 1:21 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
I've driven the Pikes Peak highway several times.

You'll need help from Barnie and Wilma, Pebbles and Bam Bam, too...

Print the post Back To Top
Author: AlejandroOrtiz Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11158 of 18156
Subject: Re: Time to buy? Date: 9/20/2006 10:48 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
"So....I'd wait until Ford looks like it will survive...which *isn't* NOW. If the company turns around....there will be plenty of time to climb aboard....it'll be a slow painful climb up...assuming it comes."

Do you really think that the company may not be able to turn it around? I think things are bad at Ford, but it can be salvaged.

Alejandro

Print the post Back To Top
Author: Philipo Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11159 of 18156
Subject: Re: Time to buy? Date: 9/20/2006 11:21 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 2
"Do you really think that the company may not be able to turn it around?"

Hm...Hate being another naysayer but what constitutes a turn around? Being bought out? Selling off assets for working cash? General successful down-sizing? Turn around's in any classical sense of such terms are waaaaay in the future & speculative at best. The recent pop up is more like relative relief just because the beating stopped for a moment.

Clearly the market still is more concerned than not - I see no reason to doubt Rob's cautions of there being more really bleak quarters ahead despite the best efforts along the way (forward). These employee buyouts are costly in the short term.

Unless you disagree with that short to mid term prospect of quarters worth of bad news why not wait for any LT potential or find better short term prospects? In other words why not buy ON evidence of an actual turn around rather than so early before and with more beatings to come?
B
(blue oval fan but worried for the company)

Print the post Back To Top
Author: GeezerRob Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Home Fool Supernova Phoenix 1
Mission Team Member CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11160 of 18156
Subject: Re: Time to buy? Date: 9/20/2006 2:24 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 1
This is a "negativity" day.....

I see Ford becoming competitive and profitable in NA, but don't see the steps in place to fix the rest of the world yet. That will be something for Mulally to push....assuming there are sufficient resources to accomplish it.

What *really* is getting me is thinking how Ford has over US$150,000,000,000.00 in debt (including Ford Credit). That debt is constantly be rolled over....and as 4.5%-5% debt comes due....it is replaced by 10.5%-11% debt.

How long can ya keep *that* up, Bubba? :(

Rob
Who is amazed that his area is actually *hiring* to increase staff levels...



Print the post Back To Top
Author: AlejandroOrtiz Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11161 of 18156
Subject: Re: Time to buy? Date: 9/20/2006 2:31 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
"Unless you disagree with that short to mid term prospect of quarters worth of bad news why not wait for any LT potential or find better short term prospects? In other words why not buy ON evidence of an actual turn around rather than so early before and with more beatings to come?"

I see your point and understand your logic. Unfortunately, the sign of a turnaround might come gradually and be missed by most. Let see what happens.

Good luck!

Alejandro

Print the post Back To Top
Author: Philipo Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11162 of 18156
Subject: Re: Time to buy? Date: 9/20/2006 5:01 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
"I see your point and understand your logic. Unfortunately, the sign of a turnaround might come gradually and be missed by most."

IMO even gradual improvements would not be unfortunate compared to how fast things got bad. Back to gradual turn around - if so (still speculative) all the more reason to justify not taking unnecessary risks or tie up capital now. Things are soooo bad it will be hard to miss the signs of any real turn around and whatever the signs I'd bet they won't appear overnight nor be missed. For examples (and in no particular order):

*Real dividends (not just ones to placate the market but ones that indicate actual profitability).
*The related issue of reinvesting in debt reductions.
*Positive market share changes - in any segments or preferably ensemble.
*Reports from people like Rob that the company is playing smarter thus improving their adaptability to auto market demands.

And that's just for starts - these are all predictable and slow events (assuming they happen).

In the mean time I'm just playing customer and a little selfish in that I don't want the Explorers or Mustang types of projects to disappear (or be melded into some icky GMC or Nissan versions). Unfortunately I seem to be in the minority of FoMoCo customers who really like the products and their bang/buck.

"Let see what happens.
Good luck!"

Amen. To you as well. I'm really pulling for the company but will stay out of any cap investing in it for now. Generally I do LTB&H and only buy on positive movement that's backed by substance - and rarely on beat up Titanic companies trying to steer clear of icebergs (large turning radius ;-). My mad money (risk) allocations are usually towards faster moving start ups (Ford doesn't meet any of these req's in recent years or looking forward the next year or two).
Regards,
B

Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: AlejandroOrtiz Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11164 of 18156
Subject: Re: Time to buy? Date: 9/21/2006 9:43 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
"Unfortunately I seem to be in the minority of FoMoCo customers who really like the products and their bang/buck."

I'm part of that minority too. I like the Ford products as well, and primarily a "icky" GM man.

Thanks for the feedback!

Alejandro

Print the post Back To Top
Author: PHOINIX20 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11170 of 18156
Subject: Re: Time to buy? Date: 9/21/2006 10:45 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0

If you believe in the product and the company then by
all means take a chance in the stock.

"Nothing Ventured Nothing gained".

PHOINIX20
The Eternal Bird

Print the post Back To Top
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (11) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Next Thread
Advertisement