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Author: OriginalBlob Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 127  
Subject: Time to Get Back In? Date: 9/26/2008 12:05 PM
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Hello--anybody still following this stock??

HG recommended a sell at about $90 due to valuation. WLT is now down over 40%. If the fundamentals are unchanged from May, what would be a good point to buy back in? Anybody doing calculations on fair value??

OriginalBlob
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Author: GilliganJR Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 115 of 127
Subject: Re: Time to Get Back In? Date: 9/26/2008 12:24 PM
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Actually, they sold at $69 in late April.

I am waiting for sub-$40 to get back in.

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Author: OriginalBlob Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 116 of 127
Subject: Re: Time to Get Back In? Date: 10/2/2008 10:55 AM
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Apparently in this market you have to be careful what you wish for!

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Author: GilliganJR Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 117 of 127
Subject: Re: Time to Get Back In? Date: 10/2/2008 12:11 PM
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I would never have wished for it, I just learned from Bill Mann (TMF) that when you are dealing with commodities companies like WLT, Mr. Market is buying and selling the commodity not the company.

While oil continues to slide, I will assume coal and WLT will continue to slide as well. I have money ready to buy-back-in when it levels off a bit.

I suspect that will be somewhere just before the next quarterly earnings announcement.

I also need to learn more about the spin-off.

But, I will own shares of this company again... soon!

T

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Author: OriginalBlob Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 118 of 127
Subject: Re: Time to Get Back In? Date: 10/6/2008 11:19 AM
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WLT was recommended in October 2006 with a buy-in price around $46. The analysis stressed that you get both Walter Industries and Mueller Water, and talked about a 20-year horizon on water infrastructure rebuilding.

I bought in at 21 and 25 the next year when it took a dip. I'm still holding, although painfully at the moment, and am still slightly up, but with the market doing what it's doing, I won't be surprised to go negative on this stock.

I'll be buying more, though, in the near future too. I don't see the price of metallurgical coal dropping much (see link) and I can't imagine the company is now worth 25% of what it was a month ago.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/page/coalnews/coalmar.html...

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Author: GilliganJR Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 119 of 127
Subject: Re: Time to Get Back In? Date: 10/6/2008 11:56 AM
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Some interesting news to read, unfortunately with mixed signals.

The BULL
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/investing/10440...

The BEAR
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN022986962008...

And here I sit, wondering when to buy on this and several other stocks on my watch list.

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Author: OriginalBlob Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 120 of 127
Subject: Re: Time to Get Back In? Date: 10/8/2008 3:58 PM
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Mr. Patrick bought 34,000 shares at $40.55 average. The stock is still below that after running up 17% (at the moment) today.

The bear argument makes sense, but it hasn't shown up in coal prices yet, at least the charts I've seen published.

This stock is almost cut in half from the HG sell recommendation price, and two thirds off its 52-week high. Maybe commodity prices saw an irrational bubble based on expectations on growth in China and India, but I think the valuation makes pretty good sense at today's prices. At the end of the day, people will need "stuff" and steel will be used. Isn't the coal used for smelting recycled steel too? Either way the seller should benefit.

I am down 10-25% each on the 3 small purchases I made last Friday, but I don't pretend to know the bottom. Emotionally, it's easy to feel like I should have sold *everything* a month ago, which would have saved me several 10s of thousands if I bought back in today. Hopefully this will look like a small blip when I look back some day.

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