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Author: FlyingDiver Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 76418  
Subject: Re: 4% Withdrawal Date: 7/9/2007 10:41 AM
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To see why, we have to look at what are sometimes called second-order effects. A 4% withdrawal rate has a 95% chance of success. If you reset once, you are taking more than the original 4%, and you are starting over with another 95% chance of success. To me, that gives you a probablility of success of 0.95 x 0.95, which is just under 90%.

Every time you reset the withdrawal rate you decrease the probability of success. Sooner or later, you get to the point where failure is a pretty high probability.


The old probability of success doesn't apply any more, since you're no longer following that plan. The SWR models are all based on historical trends, all looking forward from different starting points. You start a new "plan", and the old one is irrelevant.

Resetting the withdrawal rate does not reduce the success rate.

joe

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