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Author: ataloss Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 5068  
Subject: Re: FIRE Benchmarks Date: 9/23/2003 2:39 PM
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Today, off a solid 25% rebound from that low, the S&P 500 is at 985 with the dividend yield now at 2.0%, plus a still-expected (hoped-for?) 6% earnings growth, the investment return on stocks during the coming decade would be 8%. The P/E has risen to about 19 times on projected operating earnings (I know that's a stretch) and it's hard to see much upside. If we assume it eases the 18 times ten years from now, speculative return would take away about one-half a point from the investment return. Result: Reasonable expectations suggest to me an annual return on stocks of about 7½%—say, 6% to 9%—in the decade that lies ahead. (You don't agree? Just to insert your own expectations for earnings growth and P/E change, and then extend the simple math.)


Bogle is suggesting lower future stock returns (and Bernstein and Buffett) although it doesn't mean that it is going to happen that way I am not comfortable assuming that it won't

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