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Author: Xarn Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 121859  
Subject: Tops n Bottoms Date: 12/19/2000 8:37 PM
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..Bottoms can't be found at a magical price, bottoms are created when the forces that move stocks up or down converge to shift the prevailing trend.

..Because you have tax loss selling and the lower we go the more the selling ensues, we still have companies that will forecast or give lower guidance in the tech arena. There is still a great deal of uncertainty about the future of the economy and what the prevailing winds will have in store for us next year. More then anything bottoms are made when the idea of holding stock is better then the idea of holding another asset class such as bonds.

..Because we have a slowing economy, and the depth of it is uncertain, money should leave equities to credit markets. Also the foreign currency FX that inundated our markets because of the strength of the dollar may be at risk for flight or repatriation due to upcoming rate cuts by the FED.

..There is also the idea of overcapacity that has been built into the system, from the past few years of capital expenditure.

..Bottoms are more of a function of time then a certain price on a chart. Until we are in the midst of the slowdown and can gauge it and we see a resurgence in demand for the products the tech companies produce, you can't call a bottom.

..Forces that effect stocks:

- interest rates (Monetary Policy)
- personal income (Fiscal Policy)
- politics/market friendly policies
- sentiment/more of a construct of the times we are living in.
- foreign capital inflows (FX issues)
- earnings/growth/microeconomic issues

..Give it some time, and it will bottom out.

Chris
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