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Author: AngryCandy Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 6881  
Subject: Trannies Date: 3/18/1999 3:32 PM
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Hello, didn't expect this one!

Dow Transports break decisively through resistance at 3400. The high is at 3600 and change but that was over a year ago. This is a new local high. And it comes in the face of a spike in oil prices and an earnings warning from AMR.

That's strength.

Trannies make big moves in short spurts. If they do top the old high (another 200 pts), we are off to the races.

-chris
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Author: EconDropout Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 3856 of 6881
Subject: Re: Trannies Date: 3/18/1999 3:40 PM
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Chris, the trannies are either the sign of a huge run or crash. You are generally bullish, so you see the upside.


I am a bear. I think the run in the airlines is the dumbest thing I have ever seen. It is not strength, it is a desperation attempt to keep from blowing up.

We will know shortly, but I am covering my future.

You have been doing well and this is not worth the risk, if the bull is for real, it will still be their in a week.

Good luck to you.

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Author: AngryCandy Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 3857 of 6881
Subject: Re: Trannies Date: 3/18/1999 3:46 PM
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Geez, I've never seen Mark Haines so excited. At 3:45, we're within 20 pts of 10,000 and he breathlessly informs us that "CNBC will take no further commercial breaks until the close of trading."

Ooh...

OK, I admit it, 10,000 is kinda cool and right now I gotta go to the bathroom and i'm holding it in for the next 15 minuts just so I can watch to see if we break it (need 9 pts now...)

I disagree with you about the mov ein airlines being "stupid." It would have been stupid for AMR to get crushed just because the quarterly results are hit by the recent pilot's strike. That's hardly a long-term problem.

The Transports have been weak for a while. If this is a new run for the Transports, that is a major bullish sign.

Need 6 pts now...

-chris

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Author: EconDropout Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 3858 of 6881
Subject: Re: Trannies Date: 3/18/1999 5:00 PM
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I hope you are right Chris.

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Author: EconDropout Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 3860 of 6881
Subject: Re: Trannies Date: 3/19/1999 11:40 AM
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Trannies are not looking so good today are they?

I am not gloating, but you should consider buying some insurance for this afternoon, or taking some money off.

There is no way you can tell me that this morning looks good.

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Author: AngryCandy Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 3861 of 6881
Subject: Re: Trannies Date: 3/19/1999 12:22 PM
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<<Trannies are not looking so good today are they?

I am not gloating, but you should consider buying some insurance for this afternoon, or taking some
money off.

There is no way you can tell me that this morning looks good. >>

+100 yesterday, -40 today. Looks good to me.

It's OE day - I don't care about anything that happens today. Wake me up on Monday.

This move to Dow 10,000 is costing me a lot of money. I have a stock blowing up every day. Actually, I have 1 stock that blows up brand new every single day (NETA). I think it might actually be going to 0. I've never seen anything like it.

-chris

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Author: PsychoDaisies Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 3867 of 6881
Subject: Re: Trannies Date: 3/19/1999 9:17 PM
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3/18/99,

FedEx reports earnings that are either double or triple last years (I forget which one) last years, and blew past earnings estimates. Stock rises more than 5%.

Maybe transport shippers moved in sympathy.

I also believe FedEx is part of Dow Transport. FedEx can make a big difference in an index of only 20 stocks. I don't follow markets like some of you. If I was here I would have surely posted it.

My only question is that since oil keeps getting cheaper, why aren't airlines getting more expensive? Some airlines have also raised passenger rates recently.


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Author: PsychoDaisies Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 3868 of 6881
Subject: Re: Trannies Date: 3/19/1999 9:37 PM
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Chris,

When does NETA announce 1st quarter?

I read in the E*Trade news that people are concerned this company may not make 1st quarter estimates. I suppose this is a follow up of not being able to expense some acquisition costs last quarter, causing the stock to drop. Are they unable to expense acquisition costs again this quarter and that's why they may miss?

In any event, I doubt this stock will rocket to it's high of 67 in short order from where it is now and I will have plenty of time to buy some reasonably cheap when it's obvious people love the stock again, but I don't see it happening soon with all this SEC expense stuff and now this.

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Author: HoarseWhisperer Two stars, 250 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 3869 of 6881
Subject: Re: Trannies Date: 3/19/1999 10:34 PM
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PsychoDaisies-

On the question of the airlines - there are a few factors at work.

There was a divergence between the DOW industrials and the trannies. The way DOW theory goes the two need to converge. Apparently, the trannies rose rather than the other way around.

Oil prices have spiked, but it is not known yet if it is a sustained trend. Furthermore, oil cost hike can be offset by higher utilization rates ( close to 70 % ) and higher air fares.

Finally, UAL preannounced better earnings and this gave all the airlines a lift.

HoarseWhisperer

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Author: PsychoDaisies Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 3871 of 6881
Subject: Re: Trannies Date: 3/20/1999 3:31 PM
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It's my understanding that both indexes must break past previous resistance for a true confirmation, not both just manage to move up or down in synch for a few days. If one index makes a new high and the other is still struggling below resistance, there is a "failure to confirm."

I got this from "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends," a very long book I managed to read.

Unfortunately, the Dow Theory is not as simple as seeing obvious signs of moving up and down together over a certain period of time.

Like many other technical anlaysis methods, it requires human interpretation, and therefore is subject to misinterpretation. I truly believe that cannot be overstated. An investor looking at the charts may end up seeing something that is not there just because he wants it to be there. His current decision on the market (whether he's bullish or bearish) may cause him to find a signal in his favor even when it's not, because he wants to find things in his favor. The Dow Theory is complex enough for this to happen. Someone may feel vindicated when they find a pattern the feel is in their favor when it may even be a signal that suggests taking the opposite action they are doing! But what are you going to do, not invest? My opinion is that applies just as well to fundamental analysis, and you may as well give it up on deciphering the economy. At least me, anyway. You may totally disagree with me. I suppose people like John M. Keynes contributed well, but they're famous for a reason. For me, I like to keep things as simple as possible to avoid misinterpretation and missing important variables.

I'm not saying the Dow Theory is worthless, I'm just saying it's not as easy as looking to see if both indexes are moving in the same direction on a given trading day. Of course, you would have a good head start knowing as much as possible on the Dow Theory if you plan on using it. I myself have never put much thought into following the Dow Theory, althought TAoST says it beats just buying and holding the stock indexes themselves.

I have only been studying charts for a short time, but looking back, I can see how I could have got into some stocks at much lower prices by looking at charts instead of just seeing how fast stock prices are moving down by looking at stock tables.

I don't understand why people still look at bar charts. I like Candlesticks so much better. They kick ass. I also plan on learning Renko charts, Three Line Break charts, and Kagi Charts, but that's as I get time.

-Your flower with a mental problem:)

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Author: Anigma Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 6876 of 6881
Subject: Re: Trannies Date: 10/6/2008 10:54 AM
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This move to Dow 10,000 is costing me a lot of money. I have a stock blowing up every day. Actually, I have 1 stock that blows up brand new every single day (NETA). I think it might actually be going to 0. I've never seen anything like it.

-chris


Me, neither.

Anigma

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Author: RayRohn Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 6877 of 6881
Subject: Re: Trannies Date: 10/6/2008 11:31 PM
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lol have not been a post on this board in over a year !!!!

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