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Author: AWF Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 6326  
Subject: Turning Point : 04/14/00 Date: 4/15/2000 4:08 PM
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This Turning Point analysis is on the NYSE Comp. Avg. and the Value Line Geometric Avg.

Current Wkly close:
NYSE Comp.Avg = 611.49
Value Line-GAvg.= 396.66
Last Signal: 01/28/00 Intermediate Sell

Back on March 26--I proposed the following:

The Bull's case:
1) A Wkly close above 650 on the NYSE Comp.Avg. would give an Fresh Intermediate Buy Signal.
2) A Wkly close above 431 on the Value Line Geometric would give an Intermediate Buy Signal and suggest the "ENTIRE" market was moving up. A close above 431 would also penetrate a down trendline from the summers HIGH.


The Bear's case:
1)A Wkly close below 576 on the NYSE Comp.Avg.would
"REPEAT" the Intermediate Sell Signal of 01/28/00
"576" has been a "Critical" reversal(Support) point twice in the last year a Wkly close below this level would ACCELERATE the Downtrend!
2)A Wkly close below 394 on the Value Line Geometric
would "REPEAT" the Intermediate Sell Signal: 01/28/00
The 394-400 area has been a "Critical" reversal(Support) point at least 4 times in the past year for this Avg.


WHERE ARE WE NOW?? On the Edge of a Cliff

The NYSE Comp.Avg did move above 650 BUT this move was
NOT-CONFIRMED by the Value Line GAvg.--

At this Weeks end (04/14/00) the Value Line GAvg.had reversed and is sitting on 396 and "Critical Support" This upcoming week will be another Test of this level by the general market--as proposed before:
A Wkly close below 394 on the Value Line Geometric
would "REPEAT" the Intermediate Sell Signal: 01/28/00


NasDaq 100:---SMACKDOWN!!I wondered where Vince McMann was? He took his crew to the Nasdaq for some body slammin!!---Will the Bears "pin" our Nasdaq Champs??

The Nasdaq100 closed 04/14/00 at 3207.96--MA support sits at about 3025--Many technicians think prices will bounce off/up from this level. Other than the MA there is NO real support there!! orthodox "Support" for the NasDaq100 sits at 2400-2500 area, and at 2000-2100
below this level "support" at 1200-1300 and 960-1000

A problem with the NasDaq100 Avg.is the fact that
4 Stocks (CSCO,Dell,INTC,MSFT) account for over 25% of the weighting in this Avg.
Some of you Farmers out there have heard this saying Which ever way the "BELL COWS" go- the rest of the heard will follow!! Well its true on the farm and its true in the "stock" market

Lets take a look at the "BELL COWS":
1)MSFT--whoa is me--Did not find support at its 52MA
Sitting on "critical support" at 70-74--A wkly close below this level would suggest a DOWN Spike to 48-50
2)CSCO--Wkly Close 57---support at 50-52 A wkly close below this level would suggest 36 sooner rather than later.
3)INTC--Wkly Close 110.50--support at 89-94 and 80-82
"critical support" 70-72---Because of the number of support levels --INTC should weather the Storm!
4)Dell--Wkly Close 47.63---Slipped back into support at 48-50--easily could retest the 36-38 area.

Submitted for your consideration:
1)Sometime this weekend either the President or other "official" will commment on the market with reassuring words--it goes something like this
--------"Dont worry be Happy"
2)Someone at the "Justice" dept will say that they are not contemplating the breakup of MSFT and it was all a big joke!
3)Someone on Wall Street will say its nothing but a
Healthy Correction-I hope i don't get any "Healthier"
4)Someone on Wall Street will buy S&P futures monday morning to support the market.

final thoughts:

The "Key" to low risk investing is avoiding large losses














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