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Ever since the horseless carriage first chugged onto the scene, car sales have gone up every year, except during recessions and wars. As every country hits a given standard of living, it inevitably joins the “car club.” One of the strongest aspirations of almost every human is to own an automobile. Or at least that was the case until recently.


The point is, we’ll no longer need a car for everyone with a driver’s license. In the not too distant future, one car could replace three or four. Maybe more.

And this is going to have a dramatic impact on car sales. I used to believe that population growth would lead to ever higher levels of production. Not anymore. We’ll still see growth as other developing nations join the “car club”, but after that we’ll hit a plateau. Sometime, probably late in the next decade, we’re going to hit the point where car sales stop growing.

Bottom line: Maybe.... for long term growth.... we need to look elsewhere? What do you think?

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