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http://wardsauto.com/blog/car-sales-will-stop-growing-eventu...

Ever since the horseless carriage first chugged onto the scene, car sales have gone up every year, except during recessions and wars. As every country hits a given standard of living, it inevitably joins the “car club.” One of the strongest aspirations of almost every human is to own an automobile. Or at least that was the case until recently.

<snip>

The point is, we’ll no longer need a car for everyone with a driver’s license. In the not too distant future, one car could replace three or four. Maybe more.

And this is going to have a dramatic impact on car sales. I used to believe that population growth would lead to ever higher levels of production. Not anymore. We’ll still see growth as other developing nations join the “car club”, but after that we’ll hit a plateau. Sometime, probably late in the next decade, we’re going to hit the point where car sales stop growing.


Bottom line: Maybe.... for long term growth.... we need to look elsewhere? What do you think?

Rob
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This idea ("we'll no longer need a car for everyone with a driver's license") is reflected in the trend toward teens being in far less a rush to get their driver's licenses. Times change and culture changes and any prognosticator who foresees an unending upward trend in anything is kidding only himself.

There's nothing new about the changing trend phenomenon. In the 1870's there was no such thing as a self propelled personal land vehicle. Fifty years later cars were being built around the world, Henry Ford's company had built nearly fifteen million of a single model and fifty years after that the auto industry had been the tail wagging the Western world's economic dog for decades. A sea change is inevitable. On an analogous front, in 1970 there were roughly zero personal computers and Dick Tracy's wrist radio was a pipe dream. The PC skyrocketed in function, popularity and influence from 1970 to 2000 but today the PC is already being supplanted by tablet computers and smart phones with Bluetooth wireless connections, both of which we already take for granted. The technology worm turns ever faster.

Yeah, I think that before long we'll be looking elsewhere for long term growth.

KennyO
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"What do you think?"

Maybe there's an OR as in: or increasingly some off us will own multiple cars because what's great for commuting mileage isn't going to tow the boat or be fun for weekend drives (is why I have a car, SUV, and ponycar). Course that's only if there's a middle class left to consider such life options...not that it ever came without sacrifices elsewhere.

Good topic Rob.
B
(stopping in @TMF to catch up from time to time)
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I do NOT EVER tow my boat -- It is way, way too big to tow. It stays in the Pacific near Kailua-Kona, Hawaii. -- KCFA

I don't need a boat.

If I choose, I walk on the water or fly. And I can enable my friends to accompany me. I also own the Pacific Ocean, but have chosen to allow free passage to all in my magnanimity. I usually don't go into these details. As you know, I'm too humble.

Rob
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"I do NOT EVER tow my boat -- It is way, way too big to tow. It stays in the Pacific near Kailua-Kona, Hawaii"

Sure, you and Walter Mitty are aircraft carrier commanders...online.
B
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"...As you know, I'm too humble..."

In fact, I have it from multiple 'reliable sources' that you are indeed the most humble individual (or entity)in the entire galaxy.
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In fact, I have it from multiple 'reliable sources' that you are indeed the most humble individual (or entity)in the entire galaxy. -- ncfool2

Thanks!

<I'm glad to see you already got the cash I sent>

Rob
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