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Author: jvansuch Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 40850  
Subject: Unemotional Inv Date: 8/22/2004 5:26 AM
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I'm new to Investing and to the Motley Fool. I'm 38 and looking for a way to build a decent retirement portfolio, and generate enough money to send my two daughter (age 6 & 2) to college. I've just read the book THE UNEMOTIONAL INVESTOR. Since this book is a few years old, I was wondering how the UNEMOTIONAL GROWTH, and the UNEMOTIONAL VALUE PLUS 4 portfolio have done since the publishing? Also, is Robert Sheard still with the Motley Fool?
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Author: JeanDavid Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 40788 of 40850
Subject: Re: Unemotional Inv Date: 8/22/2004 6:58 AM
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I'm new to Investing and to the Motley Fool. I'm 38 and looking for a way to build a decent retirement portfolio, and generate enough money to send my two daughter (age 6 & 2) to college. I've just read the book THE UNEMOTIONAL INVESTOR. Since this book is a few years old, I was wondering how the UNEMOTIONAL GROWTH, and the UNEMOTIONAL VALUE PLUS 4 portfolio have done since the publishing? Also, is Robert Sheard still with the Motley Fool?

THE UNEMOTIONAL INVESTOR is definately a few years old. IMAO, the research Robert Sheard did when writing the book was pretty good for the time in which he did it, but since then many have been able to build databases with data going back much further, and with much more data in them (e.g., daily instead of monthly data), and backtesting these screens these days would not, I expect, justify using either the UV4 or UG5 screens these days. IIRC, UV4 was a "dogs of the dow" type screen and these do not appear to be a good idea now that they have been tested more fully. They seem to give you more volatility (making it difficult to sleep at night) with no better performance than buying the entire DJIA.

Similarly, the UG5 screen has great emotional appeal to me: it seems to me it really should work well. The facts do not seem to justify its appeal: it has enormous volatility -- we used to joke that the way to find posts about it was to do a search for MAALOX (back when TMF had a workable search engine for these boards). I do not know if I was the last to give up on the UG5 or not, but I have given it up some years ago.

In summary, I think THE UNEMOTIONAL INVESTOR is an interesting book to read as insight as to how some screens can be devised and an approach to backtesting them, but it is not useful if you are just looking for a couple of screens to use for investing real money.

Robert Sheard is no longer with The Motley Fool. To avoid conflict of interest, he resigned when he started a stock investment business:

http://www.sheard-davey.com/

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Author: jvansuch Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 40790 of 40850
Subject: Re: Unemotional Inv Date: 8/22/2004 10:32 AM
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Thank You! I wanted to make sure the results hadn't changed since the book, and now I'm glad I did. I guess, I still need to look for something that is easy to follow, but consistently shows big returns.

Thank you,
Jim

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Author: JeanDavid Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 40792 of 40850
Subject: Re: Unemotional Inv Date: 8/22/2004 3:30 PM
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Thank You! I wanted to make sure the results hadn't changed since the book, and now I'm glad I did. I guess, I still need to look for something that is easy to follow, but consistently shows big returns.

It is on the shelf, right next to the Holy Grail.

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Author: Beynt Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 40832 of 40850
Subject: Re: Unemotional Inv Date: 3/30/2008 6:14 PM
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I joined Motley Fool recently and I sent the following question to Motley Fool Customer Service and they suggested I check one of the discussion boards and that's how I found your question, which is very similar.


Now, my question to you is this: Did you find an alternative form or system of investing that works.



In The Unemotional Investor, Robert Sheard recommended using the Unemotional Value and the Unemotional Growth systems. He wrote the book in 1998. Where can I find a table which would show how his two systems would have done from 1998 to 2007 inclusive.

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Author: rwde Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 40833 of 40850
Subject: Re: Unemotional Inv Date: 3/31/2008 9:28 AM
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In The Unemotional Investor, Robert Sheard recommended using the Unemotional Value and the Unemotional Growth systems. He wrote the book in 1998. Where can I find a table which would show how his two systems would have done from 1998 to 2007 inclusive.

Things have evolved tremendously since Sheard developed those two screens. He has long since gone his own way, but a vibrant community of investors have continued his legacy.

They started, I believe, over on AOL, then came to the internet proper as the Foolish Workshop here at TMF.

The FW developed more, and more effective, screens as time went on. It was closely affiliated with the Foolish Four, a Dow dividend-based investing method that used a similar data-driven quantitative investing style, with a heavy reliance on backtesting.

The Gardeners have always been more comfortable with a fundamental analysis style of investing, but TMF also promoted the F4 as a method for those who didn't want to get into fundamental analysis.

The Foolish Four went by the wayside when TMF dropped it after more data came available that showed it wasn't actually as reliable as the limited data previously available had indicated. At the the same time, TMF dropped its sponsorship of the FW web section here at TMF. Those pages are still available, but no longer being updated.

The activity is now mostly on several of the message boards here at TMF - primarily the Mechanical Investing board and its still operating but much less active Foolish Workshop predecessor, along with the Benchmark Investing board and maybe one or two others.

In direct answer to your request for performance information for the UV and UG screens, the best I can do is to direct you to Jamie Gritton's backtester's results for the UG screen:
http://backtest.org/STug110

Click the Run button there and you'll get the CAGR, or Compound Annual Growth Rate, and GSD, or Geometric Standard Deviation. The CAGR you probably know. The GSD is a measure of the variability of the screen's results.

At 37, the GSD is quite high. Anything over 30 is usually undesirable. Unless mitigated by blending with suitably uncorrelated investments, such a high variability makes it too difficult to follow such a screen, no matter how unemotional one tries to be.

Look around at the http://backtest.org site, try a number of the predefined screens and maybe some blends.

Come on by the MI board http://boards.fool.com/Messages.asp?bid=100093 and see if you might like to join in. I must forewarn you that it can be a bit daunting. There's a lot of information to digest.

Here's the "current" FW/MI FAQ (quite dated now, nearly 7 years later):
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=14908629

And JimZipCode's intro series to MI, the most recent effort:

MI1: Intro, Math
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=24107932

MI2: Problems, Lingo
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=24107936

MI3: Screens, Switching
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=24107937

MI4: Options, Timing
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=24107941

MI5: Basics, Thinking
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=24107942

MI6: Further
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=24107943

-R

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