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Author: Kazim Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 25023  
Subject: Re: Where's the Foundation? Date: 3/1/2001 6:29 PM
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Unfortunately, the link you provided did not deal with the calculations mentioned in my previous post. So I must continue with my own line of reasoning and simply disregard your link.
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I didn't get the opportunity to look at your link intently enough yet.


Hmmm, why am I not surprised that you didn't read it before deciding that it was irrelevant to you?

It precisely dealt with your argument. It was referring to the exact same Fred Hoyle quote, which in itself is faulty.

evolutionary process, comparatively speaking, isn't like winning the million dollar lottery 3,000 times in a row, it's more like winning the million dollar lottery only 50 times in a row. I don't even know anyone who has won the million dollar lottery just three times in a row, do you?

What the article points out, if you'd bother to read it, is that those calculations are meaningless because they're based on bad assumptions. Yes, if you throw amino acids together at random, it's highly unlikely that they'll land in a configuration of useable DNA. That's why we study laws that explain chemical and biological behavior that describes the gradual building up of cells. You're calculating the probability of something that didn't happen, and nobody claims it does.

Suppose I show you a poker hand and it's a straight flush, and I say "I drew this from a shuffled deck." Now you can look at it and say "The odds against that straight flush occurring are huge. It's impossible for you to have drawn that hand randomly." Then I say "I did draw the hand from a shuffled deck, but I didn't just keep the original hand. I kept the cards that I liked, discarded the ones I didn't like, reshuffled, and kept drawing more cards until I had a straight flush. I was drawing from a random deck, but I was operating under rules that allowed me to get a great hand."

But here you go sticking your fingers in your ears, saying "You didn't draw that hand randomly! It's mathematically impossible! Liar! Liar!"

That's when I walk away and make you play 52 pickup.
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