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Author: Avunculus100 One star, 50 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 103  
Subject: United Health Contract Date: 11/7/2006 9:53 AM
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Anyone think we need to play a little defense here, in case there are stumbles in integrating the United Health contract? This is a pretty unforgiving market, and a 20% haircut is almost automatic when there's a bump.

After a nice run up, I'm thinking of taking half my position off until I see how things work out.
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Author: Matt1344 Big gold star, 5000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 91 of 103
Subject: Re: United Health Contract Date: 11/7/2006 10:07 AM
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"After a nice run up, I'm thinking of taking half my position off until I see how things work out."

Hi Avunculus100,

It did have a big slide 4 years ago but the chart since then has been a nice upward climb with nothing even close to a 20% drop. Of course anything is possible so I have a trailing stop loss in place.

Regards, Ken

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Author: Avunculus100 One star, 50 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 92 of 103
Subject: Re: United Health Contract Date: 11/8/2006 4:33 PM
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Thanks for the feed back, Ken.

I did take my position off, with gritted teeth. It's been such a sweet ride, but I just felt I had to call it in.

The reason I'm wary of 20% pull backs is that, that's what I see a lot of on many good quality stocks on even a slight miss.

It's basically a probability call, which I hope doesn't happen, although I sure would like to get back in at such a bargain price.

I think your approach is another good probability call. I got taken down by a bunch of guys on another board for recommending trailing stops to one of them. They maintain that markets go right thru stops on a sell off, and stops get you out just at the time you should be doubling up. I don't buy that argument, because it depends on what triggered the sell off, and you can't predict that ahead of time.

So we'll just have to wait and see. Even if LH goes straight up from here, I won't begrudge you your bet. Or regret mine too much. I've got a nice slice of profit to reinvest.

Cheers and good luck.

Bob M.

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Author: Matt1344 Big gold star, 5000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 93 of 103
Subject: Re: United Health Contract Date: 11/8/2006 4:48 PM
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"I think your approach is another good probability call. I got taken down by a bunch of guys on another board for recommending trailing stops to one of them. They maintain that markets go right thru stops on a sell off, and stops get you out just at the time you should be doubling up. I don't buy that argument, because it depends on what triggered the sell off, and you can't predict that ahead of time."

Hi Bob,

We each have to make our own decisions. Plenty of drops do not occur so quickly that you get a much lower price, but it is a possibility. There are plenty of folks on the boards who use stops.

No one knows what will happen or when. I don't have stops on all my companies... but some days I feel like selling everything and just not think about it for a while ;-) Thats hard to do, just like selling your LH, but we make our decisions and go forward. I like profits and I'd rather leave some on the table than having to deal with the "I knew I should have sold..." aftermath. One day I may just put everything on stops and get out of the market that way :-) Anything that refuses to drop could stick around.

The big win by the Dems have folks wondering how it will effect health care and pharma... Down the line some of the prognosticators will be right and some will be wrong...

All the best to you,

Ken

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