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Author: Sigma8squared Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 489  
Subject: valuation update Date: 8/5/2005 10:47 PM
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Here is an updated version of this post:

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=22069647


I think the margins are about the same as I thought then and so the multiples I'm using are unchanged. I have just updated the revenues I expect now. I've shown my old estimates along with the new ones and changed the totals.





2005 UPDATE Multiple Total
BB 800M 650M x2 1300M WI 400M 100M x2 200M
WI-PAS 400M 500M x.5 250M
HS 1900M 2000M x.2 400M
TOTAL 3500M 3250M 2150M



As I mentioned in my last post, they have bought back some converts and now that the price is as depressed as it is, the conversion of much of those securities is in doubt{although I suspect the ones that I own will be converted ;-)}. For simplicity I think using a figure of about 120M shares is fair. So I think fair value is about 18 right now.

That doesn't mean I think the stock should be trading at 18 right now because there are many factors that go into where I think a stock should be trading besides value like quality and management credibility and risks that are not necessarily accounted for above. I thought I should make that disclosure. I am not a pure value investor, I take a lot of things into consideration besides how I value a stock. In this case I think of the 18 area as a potential price the stock should achieve if certain issues are resolved like credibility, cashflow and Balance Sheet problems.


Thanks for reading,

-Jim





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