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Author: joseph714 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 24974  
Subject: VICL this a.m. Date: 2/9/2012 11:18 AM
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This from the yahoo chat room & pretty much is what I was looking for on Allovectin:

Despite the confusion and panic by some investors, today's news in reality was great for VICL investors. It may not have been great for short term traders or options players, but for anyone who is a long term investor in the company or interested in the best interests of VICL and its shareholders, today's news was great.

There have now been several delays in reaching the deaths needed to close the survival analysis of the trial. First, it was thought the event date would be Oct. 2011, then Feb. 2012, then June 2012, now we learn it will be the end of 2012. That means patients are living significantly longer than expected. That is good. What is even better is that while both arms of the trial, control and Allovectin, could be living longer, it is most likely the Allovectin arm driving most of the delay. Why? Two reasons. One, there are two patients enrolled on Allovectin to every one patient enrolled on the control drug. That means that any really long delay in achieving needed deaths is probably caused by the Allovectin arm. Second, there have been dozens of trials with DTIC and we have survival data on thousands of patients. The range of median survival has been 5 months to 13 months depending on base health characteristics. While one could argue that the baseline for this trial is at least as healthy as the healthiest previous trials a median survival of 13 months or even 15-18 months in the control could not cause this kind of delay. And no one can rationally argue that the control group has a median survival of 30 months or more which is what is needed to drive this slow an event number.
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