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Author: RayRohn Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 211  
Subject: VLO Date: 9/18/2006 10:07 PM
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Well anyone still read this board?????????????


VLO look like a morning star....
way over sold and momentum looks to be turning up
and don't forget to look at the volume lol

RayRohn
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Author: RayRohn Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 183 of 211
Subject: Re: VLO Date: 9/18/2006 10:08 PM
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lol here let post a chart

http://www.rayrohn.com/images/pcharts6/vlo01.png

RayRohn



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Author: eugene4059 One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 184 of 211
Subject: Re: VLO Date: 9/19/2006 1:39 PM
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Still alot of sellers and the weekly trend is still pointing south. At this moment (09-19-06 - 1340 Hrs.) it looks like bearish engulfing and the volume is increasing. Stand aside.

Rich

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Author: RayRohn Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 185 of 211
Subject: Re: VLO Date: 9/19/2006 2:23 PM
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lol the sellers ...

important to wait untill the chart time period is over IMO
but as of now today is a bear day...
I am still look at is as a tradable bottom
I guess if the price woudl take out the old intra-day low of 49.75
it would probably change my mind some what...

FWIW ... I will post a chart later tonight

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Author: eugene4059 One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 186 of 211
Subject: Re: VLO Date: 9/19/2006 6:19 PM
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It'll be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. Good luck to you if you do decide to put on a trade here.

You're right about the chart time period. It's better to wait for confirmation before jumping in. It's amazing how people can look at the same chart and come away with different opinions. You're looking at a possible tradable bottom here and I'm looking at the weekly trend and saying no, not yet. I'm content to pass this one by for now and look for more favorable trades.

Rich



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Author: RayRohn Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 187 of 211
Subject: Re: VLO Date: 9/19/2006 10:52 PM
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man that sucks lol I had a post all ready to go and the fool lock up
...

I am sorry but I not going to rewrite it
Here a couple of charts
Weekly which IMO has some support here around 50

http://www.rayrohn.com/images/pcharts6/vlo02.png

and a daily chart which has a couple of doji's and IMO today engulfing is a little on the weak side main my because it come in a down trend rather the in a up tgrending price action..

http://www.rayrohn.com/images/pcharts6/vlo03.png

both Stoch and William are in over sold area
BTW is meaningless unless they start trending above the 20% line toward the 80% line lol

over the last 7 or eight days I see more green volume than red but I could be just wishing lol

I pick up 200 shares today
as of right now I have a mental stop are 49.50

well lol looking like a rewrote it anyway

RayRohn


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Author: eugene4059 One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 188 of 211
Subject: Re: VLO Date: 9/20/2006 5:49 PM
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I pick up 200 shares today
as of right now I have a mental stop are 49.50


Another drop with increased volume. I guess the voters, (I'll use voters instead of buyers and sellers because in the short term the market is a voting machine) have no love for VLO. Did you stop yourself out or are you still in?

This is why I like to check the weekly charts to see what the longer term sentiment is. If it's sloping down you're safer with a short position then trying to buck the trend.

Although Stoch is in the oversold range, it's damn near flat-lined on the daily chart but looks to be in the beginning stages of a turn north when viewed on the weekly chart.

I would be looking for signs of capitulation in the form of a long black candle followed by a doji of some form with confirmation via an opening gap up the following day. Combine this with Stoch pointing north and MACD Hist working its way back towards 0.0 and the odds are better for a more profitable trade.

Anyway, if you're still in I hope this turns around for you. If you're out that's good because I think there's still more downside before spring arrives.

BTW, what kind of money management rules do you follow when putting on a trade?

Rich




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Author: RayRohn Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 189 of 211
Subject: Re: VLO Date: 9/20/2006 11:24 PM
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I am still in down almost 7%

This is why I like to check the weekly charts to see what the longer term sentiment is

interesting term sentiment not sure I know what u mean...

Weekly chart ::: http://www.rayrohn.com/images/pcharts6/vlo04.png

I put in support line which are in my opinion lol

Where do u see support on the weekly chart???

BTW, what kind of money management rules do you follow when putting on a trade?

well I not one of these robots that sell if as soon as it hit x%..
I generally start a position with a few shares and if the plan turn sour and the chart show no alternative then sell the suck and forget it...

VLO is close but nothing goes straight down and VLO has loss 20 points in this move down that close to 30%...

capitulation in the form of a long black candle followed by a doji

you mean a Tweezer Bottom???
















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Author: eugene4059 One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 191 of 211
Subject: Re: VLO Date: 9/21/2006 1:39 PM
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interesting term sentiment not sure I know what u mean...

Sentiment is a judgment, attitude or thought based upon ones feelings. In this case its VLO. At this time the markets feeling is definitely negative towards this stock. Looking at the weekly chart it appears this attitude (sentiment) surfaced towards the end of July. If I wanted to trace it back further it looks like a change was coming towards the end of April. Thats not saying there weren't some good trading opportunities between May and the end of July but the attitude towards VLO was definitely shifting towards a negative bias.

At this moment I don't subscibe to a charting service so I use the free charts at StockCharts.com. If you're interested I can tell you how to to set up the charts to better illustrate what I mean.

Where do u see support on the weekly chart???

Small area of support around 45-46 then the next level is around 40, which acted as support around June through August of 2005.

you mean a Tweezer Bottom???

I am not familiar with that term. Please explain.

Rich


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Author: RayRohn Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 192 of 211
Subject: Re: VLO Date: 9/21/2006 3:32 PM
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At this moment I don't subscibe to a charting service so I use the free charts at StockCharts.com. If you're interested I can tell you how to to set up the charts to better illustrate what I mean.

if you like you can annotate a chart and e-mail it to me
my e-mail address is ray@rayrohn.com

we have the same areas of support
minor support 45-46
major support 40 and another around 30

I also find that MA are good suppport levels, I like simple MA mostly
VLO 100 MA currently is 46.67

a Tweezer Bottom which BTW I find not real reliabile

http://hotcandlestick.com/directory/Bullish%20Tweezer%20Bottom.htm

rayrohn

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