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<<You assume that whenever taxes are due they will be
paid at the same rate. In this case the difference between
remaining with a traditional IRA and converting to the ROTH,
paying taxes from the IRA, is due ONLY to the 10%
penalty. Without the 10% penalty staying it's a wash.>>

Great catch. I failed to think that through. It applies only if the penalty is paid, all other things being equal. I'll have to redo the conclusion section to say that.

<<** The assumption of constant tax rates may be invalid. But a 70 year old has a lot better chance of predicting congressional whim for 20 years than a 40 year old has for 50 years.>>

Absolutely correct. It's the one major sticking point I have about ANY long-term projections, Roth or otherwise. Things can change tomorrow, and then everything is out the window.

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