UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (15) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next
Author: Wotdabny Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 465397  
Subject: Waiting For S&P Below 700 Date: 1/5/2009 3:45 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 3
I'm sitting in a 90% cash position, the only exceptions being a few short-term cash-secured puts I'm only sort of happy with. I think we're headed down from here, so I'm watching close and doing almost nothing.

METAR seems to generally agree that the "fundamentals of the economy" currently stink, they aren't improving, and there's no reason on the horizon for them to even start getting better. If anything, as bad as things are, they're headed for worse.

I agree with Abelson that I'll feel at least a little better about "the stock market when everyone stops saying it's time to buy because everyone's bearish."

I liked mungofitch's discussion of the current market environment, which can be found here: http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27311597

I'm a bit more skeptical about the rate of inflation than mungofitch, and I agree that the final stage might turn around faster when it turns. I think he's basically right in his thesis that human nature drives the market, and that broadly speaking we're in a cycle that in some ways rhyme with the last couple. So I'm watching closely for the S&P to sink below 700. That may not be the bottom, but it will be close enough for me.

Of course, I'm not just investing in an index and hoping to get the timing right. But I am looking for the best possible valuations.

I know. It's pure speculation. But I don't have anything better to base my general investing strategy on.

S&P below 700 is where I'm drawing the line.

Dave
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post  
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (15) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next

Announcements

Foolanthropy 2014!
By working with young, first-time moms, Nurse-Family Partnership is able to truly change lives – for generations to come.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Post of the Day:
Macro Economics

Looking at Currency Ratios
What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
Community Home
Speak Your Mind, Start Your Blog, Rate Your Stocks

Community Team Fools - who are those TMF's?
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and "#1 Media Company to Work For" (BusinessInsider 2011)! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.
Advertisement