No. of Recommendations: 3
I'm sitting in a 90% cash position, the only exceptions being a few short-term cash-secured puts I'm only sort of happy with. I think we're headed down from here, so I'm watching close and doing almost nothing.

METAR seems to generally agree that the "fundamentals of the economy" currently stink, they aren't improving, and there's no reason on the horizon for them to even start getting better. If anything, as bad as things are, they're headed for worse.

I agree with Abelson that I'll feel at least a little better about "the stock market when everyone stops saying it's time to buy because everyone's bearish."

I liked mungofitch's discussion of the current market environment, which can be found here:

I'm a bit more skeptical about the rate of inflation than mungofitch, and I agree that the final stage might turn around faster when it turns. I think he's basically right in his thesis that human nature drives the market, and that broadly speaking we're in a cycle that in some ways rhyme with the last couple. So I'm watching closely for the S&P to sink below 700. That may not be the bottom, but it will be close enough for me.

Of course, I'm not just investing in an index and hoping to get the timing right. But I am looking for the best possible valuations.

I know. It's pure speculation. But I don't have anything better to base my general investing strategy on.

S&P below 700 is where I'm drawing the line.

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