No. of Recommendations: 31
I find it important to understand how time affects stock prices specially because Wall St. tends to "discount" news. The term discount is applied to loans where the interest is taken off the top. Say you borrow $1000 at a 5% discount, the bank takes $50 of the top and gives you $950. (Of course, your real rate is higher because you never saw the $1000. In effect you are paying 5% on $950, a real rate of 5.26% -- but that's not the issue here).

Wall St. does something similar with "news." Wall St. has the tendency to anticipate events and to change the price of securities accordingly. This is called discounting the news. Of course, this does not apply to real news because no one can forecast real news. It only applies to non news that masquerades as news, i.e. most of what is published in the financial press. Let me use the US housing bubble as an example.

The housing bubble started sometime in 2001 and must have reached its peak when it make the cover of Time Magazine on June 13, 2005.

Have a look at DR Horton Inc. (DHI), the largest home builder in America, its stock price climbs in unison with the housing boom:

Once the world is alerted to the fact that housing is in a bubble, people start to sell DHI because they know that bust follows boom. By August 2006 DHI has been cut in half and the two year chart clearly shows the bottom in DHI:

But the housing bust had not bottomed yet. Even now there are discussions about whether the housing market has seen the worst or not. So while the housing market is still in decline, the home builders have started on the way up 4 to 6 months ago. That is discounting the news. Investors know that the housing market is still on the way down but, since they beat the price of home builders down ahead of time (discounted the news), they can start bidding up the home builders ahead of time discounting the news that the bust must soon see the bottom.

Today there was in interesting piece of confirmation to all this. DR Horton Inc. reported earnings down 65%:

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- D.R. Horton Inc., the nation's largest home builder, said Tuesday that net income fell about 65% as the company took land charges and write-offs on options it plans not to pursue.

The Ft. Worth, Tex.-based company became the latest residential builder to announce a decline in quarterly profit as well as land-related charges as the housing and real-estate markets soften.

So what happened to the stock price? Did it drop? NO, it advanced 4.57% to 28.37! The only reason this can happen is because these so called bad news are not news at all, the market knew all about it back in August 2006 and baked it into the price back then. The market discounted the news.

The financial press has to print non-news and call it news because the company made official what the market figured out 4 to 6 months ago. This is called "discounting the news."

Denny Schlesinger
Print the post  



The 2009 BMW Method Conference has been cancelled, due to minimum attendance numbers not being met. We hope to continue the annual BMW Method Conference tradition next fall.

Learn about the first four conferences on the BMW Method Website.

The BMW Method FAQ

BMW Method Website
Annual Conference Videos and Other Resources & Services
What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Community Home
Speak Your Mind, Start Your Blog, Rate Your Stocks

Community Team Fools - who are those TMF's?
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.