No. of Recommendations: 2
We like long histories of CAGR. 30+ if available, 14 as a minimum. Is there a way to account for changing from a high growth model to a slower growth more mature company? Take the first ten years and cut that off the chart?

I believe the phenomenon you describe is discussed in detail in the book "One Up on Wall Street" by Peter Lynch.

It's known that as a new company/industry hits the scene, it's growth curve will (may?) take an "S" shape (slow growth in the beginning, steep growth in the middle, and slow growth after it reaches maturity).

I'm not sure how you can identify the transition points before they take place, but I think it may be possible to predict the transition to the stalwart growth regime by looking at market saturation.

I've actually been waiting to see this happen to both Apple and Google. I keep telling my friends that own these stocks that they are going to take a BIG hit on valuation when they miss a couple of analyst estimates. So far both companies have defied my predictions and yet, I know this event is coming. I just don't know when.
Print the post  



The 2009 BMW Method Conference has been cancelled, due to minimum attendance numbers not being met. We hope to continue the annual BMW Method Conference tradition next fall.

Learn about the first four conferences on the BMW Method Website.

The BMW Method FAQ

BMW Method Website
Annual Conference Videos and Other Resources & Services
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.