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Author: Jim2B Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 41614  
Subject: Re: Which BMW chart? Date: 9/6/2012 11:35 AM
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We like long histories of CAGR. 30+ if available, 14 as a minimum. Is there a way to account for changing from a high growth model to a slower growth more mature company? Take the first ten years and cut that off the chart?


I believe the phenomenon you describe is discussed in detail in the book "One Up on Wall Street" by Peter Lynch.

It's known that as a new company/industry hits the scene, it's growth curve will (may?) take an "S" shape (slow growth in the beginning, steep growth in the middle, and slow growth after it reaches maturity).

I'm not sure how you can identify the transition points before they take place, but I think it may be possible to predict the transition to the stalwart growth regime by looking at market saturation.

I've actually been waiting to see this happen to both Apple and Google. I keep telling my friends that own these stocks that they are going to take a BIG hit on valuation when they miss a couple of analyst estimates. So far both companies have defied my predictions and yet, I know this event is coming. I just don't know when.
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