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Author: Rayvt Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 76237  
Subject: Re: Alternative to CDs idea Date: 4/19/2011 3:13 PM
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Well, the first thing that popped out at me was on their "Hypothetical 5-year performance" link. They ADDED(!!!) the annual gains for the last 5 years to come up with 27.2%
This is bogus, bogus, bogus math. You can't validly do that. It's like dividing by zero. An invalid mathematical fuction. Any financial advisor or entity should know that. If they don't know it, then you shouldn't let them handle your money. OTOH, id they *do* know it, then they are purposely misleading you.

As to the instrument itself:
Annual cap of 10% gain, floor of 20% loss. But the cap is on each individual commodity, not on the average of all ten commodities. Plugging in their example data, this means that for year 1 (1/1/05 to 1/1/06) you get 4.9% instead of 19.1%.

OMG! The years are not independent. Each of the 5 years uses the initial value as the base. In effect, that means that in the later years you always hit the 10% cap, and rarely hit the 20% loss floor.

This thing is so complex that it would take a financial guru to figure out. And if you have that much expertise you could trade the commodities yourself.

As I see it, the main thing they are selling is "your deposited principal is 100% protected.". That usually means that you are going to get screwed.
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