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Author: commoncents33 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 14780  
Subject: Re: Ignoring APPL Date: 7/1/2013 4:49 AM
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What are lots of reasons why income will go up?


1. iPad. Apple is doing phenomenally well in the tablet market. For serious uses, Apple has a strong competitive advantage (some examples: airlines, healthcare, enterprise, education, heavy users of the internet, people using sophisticated apps). Compared to the phone market, the iPad is relatively competitive in terms of price. And it is really the only tablet that is drawing the attention of serious non-game developers who are making tablet-specific apps.

The tablet market almost certainly still has an enormous amount of growth ahead of it. Even if Apple only holds a minority of the global "tablet market" (a huge chunk of which is cheap, crappy tablets that are essentially an entirely different category of device and should be counted separately to understand reality), it will almost certainly continue to dominate the developer/serious app market. And it should be able to maintain the current margins, which are much more modest than the iPhone.

2. iPhone. Margins will compress somewhat. Absolute numbers sold will likely increase (especially if an entry-level or larger screen are introduced). A reasonable assumption is that the two will roughly cancel out. As Apple has clearly demonstrated over the past seven years with the Mac line, it can do quite well selling an expensive, premium product...with attractive margins...despite the world being awash in cheap computers of the Wintel variety. Frankly, the iPhone a substantially better competitive advantage vis-a-vis Android (namely, a clear third-party software advantage) than it has had in the Mac line (where it has a substantial disadvantage in software offerings).

3. Content sales: iTunes, App Store, iBooks. This area has been seen strong, steady growth for years now, and there is no reason to expect that to change. Although it is assumed to be low margin (no one really knows, as Apple doesn't tell us), eventually economies of scale will make this quite profitable.

4. Apple TV. No, not iTV. Apple TV...as it the little black box selling for $99. Very soon they will open this up to widespread third-party app developers. It will likely become the leading gaming console. They will sell a ton of these, and a ton of content. All the while, increasing the stickiness of the ecosystem.

5. i...Whatever's next. Between Apples culture and its unique (among large tech firms) organiztional structure and its incomprehensible cash warchest, it's in as good of a position to dominate whatever the next consumer computing electronics wave is...even if they're not first (which has basically been the case with all of their successes).


1+2+3+4+5= a lot of reasons to expect a lot of earnings growth.

Even with some pessimism, the case for substantially decreased earnings is quite thin: only vague fear and assumptions that all tech businesses must fail after a short ride on the wave. (All those people who say that Apple will be just like all the other tech companies whose flame quickly extinguished cannot explain why Apples flame burned an order of magnitude brighter than all those to which they compare it to, other than saying it got lucky. Right.)
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