No. of Recommendations: 1
What did you mean by "self-fulfilling crash" ?


I think the traders are so convinced that stocks inevitably crash in September, they sell (and short sell) on that assumption, causing it to happen (i.e., a self-fulfilling prophecy). I don't believe in market timing, and there is no certainty this will happen, so I wouldn't act on this prediction (disclaimer, my predictions are always wrong) by pulling money out of stocks. However, I have decided to make the end of August and late October my rebalancing dates, and I see no reason for someone to put a lot of money into the market now (if you're dripping, fine) instead of waiting a few months, given this pattern. Last year, when I had to be out of the market for a time anyway, to get out of my brokerage fund over to Vanguard, I chose to do it over this period, and got back in about 10% lower than where I left, which more than covered my load fee. But I have no intention of doing anything like that this year.
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