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Author: Rayvt Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 76420  
Subject: Re: Hi gang... wow!!! Date: 9/18/2013 10:03 AM
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What I set out to do was to compare two different strategies on the same set of numbers -- the actual historical price data of the S&P500 since inception -- and then compare the outcomes.

I provided that--prepared by a statistician. Did you look at it?


Yes. Yes, I did. I even commented that his chart looked just like my chart.
I provided the link to my spreadsheet. Did you ever look at it?

So anyway, here's what I did to compare what my spreadsheet said to what your statistician's spreadsheet said. I have to modify my inputs slightly since he increases the deposit differently than I do. He increases by a fixed amount every few years, I increase by an annual percentage. But we both start at $1500/yr and end near $6000/yr. Also, he computes annually, I compute monthly.

Oh, and I report the final value as the average of all 12 IUL's, one for each anniversary month (Jan-Jan, Feb-Feb etc.) He just reports the Jan-Jan IUL.

Starting Jan 1974 ending Jan 2013
His final results:
IUL: $502,000
S&P: $939,000

My spreadsheet final results:
IUL: $477,000
S&P: $899,000

Pretty darn close. And both of them say that the S&P ends up about double the IUL.

So I'd say that my spreadsheet is confirmed. Thanks for the link -- it's nice to know that I'm not out in the weeds. Either we're both wrong or we're both right.
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