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Author: nobody7 One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 291  
Subject: whats the deal here ? Date: 11/29/2005 5:36 AM
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i was also very excited about the prospects of Nabi's Staph-vax... But i was excited based on quite a bit of research ... How does a company file for a EU patent on something slated for " global release " .. only to find out in third stage trials of thousands of people that the product has no redeamable qualities ??? ... how do they issue press releases about opening plant facilities in florida and demonstrating " reproducable results on large scale " ...

How do these people get to pratically the very end never realizing this would be the end result for staph-vax ?? ... not just slightly worse results than they expected .. but clearly zero value ??

Then a .. " wow we were suprised " .. "oh well ?"...

What is to be thought of when Nic-vax is touted and they get to the end and say " oops " ... that didn't work either ...

I thought i did a decent amount of homework here ... other people did too ... and i don't think any investor saw this comming

i feel like theres something wrong here ... and buyer be ware dosent fit !
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Author: deong One star, 50 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 263 of 291
Subject: Re: whats the deal here ? Date: 11/29/2005 9:43 AM
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I agree. The indications were so positive, everything in place, nothing but optimism exuding from the PR. Then "oops". Were Phase II trials that poorly designed? I work in a hospital setting and could easily appreciate the enormous potential of this approach.

Clearly you are right that there were few if any investors anticipating this. How much positive expectation was already built into the stock price? Oh, about 300-400%

Dave, Burned by Nabi

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Author: Wolfshead56 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 264 of 291
Subject: Re: whats the deal here ? Date: 11/29/2005 10:51 AM
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Actually I think they had already passed Stage III trials also. If I read correctly the trials tha screwed up were additional late stage III trials that the US government had requested for some reason and were based on a much larger sample than the usual trials. What I don't understand is if all the other trials went so well and just this one failed why did they just throw up their hands on it. You would at least think they would run some more trials on it just to check since this last one contradicted all the previous ones. Maybe there was a glitch in the last one somewhere. Like you I find it hard to believe they got such good results up to that one then all of a sudden, nada.

herb

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Author: nobody7 One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 265 of 291
Subject: Re: whats the deal here ? Date: 11/29/2005 6:15 PM
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.. this kind of thing is .. reprehensible....isn't it !

If it was a truly new idea and the company kept saying we dont know if it will work .. then i accept the fact it might fail .. and i buy in to the company Equal to that in mind ...

But these professional people were seemingly certian of staph-vax ...

I'm going on memory here but i don't recall any bad pr about S vax ..


Not to mention { and i haven't really looked .. } ..but where's the pluthera of damage control pr ? i haven't seen squat ..

I think dave said it best ... Burned ... Top Dead Center !

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Author: Wolfshead56 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 266 of 291
Subject: Re: whats the deal here ? Date: 11/30/2005 10:12 AM
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I don't think the top dogs here were expecting what happened either. I think they were very sure that they had a winner on their hands, otherwise why decide to expand their manufacturing facilities so that they could produce it themselves rather than take the easier road of licensing it to one of the big boys, a safer but les profitable way of marketing.

herb

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Author: StockOperator Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 267 of 291
Subject: Re: whats the deal here ? Date: 12/3/2005 7:07 PM
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See my previous post regarding NABI.

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=23242944

If you have positions in speculative bio-pharm stocks, it is safe to buy protective puts, or even simply speculative puts. Looking at the PUTS gives you a pretty good idea of whats going on.

I learnt my lesson in CYPB, so I bought speculative puts (Nov 7.5 PUT) in NABI (I do not own NABI) for 0.60$ and sold them for $4.00 when the stock fell.

Same with RIGL ... when fell from 22$ to 8$ on Dec 1 from failed trial results.

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=23296978

...Also notice that the Dec 17.50 Puts (QRGXW) are selling at 0.95 b / 1.45 a.

Since RIGL covered call was risky, I bought the Dec 17.50 PUTS at 1.45. I have been rewarded handsomely.

Play safe - protect with PUTS.

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Author: nobody7 One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 268 of 291
Subject: Re: whats the deal here ? Date: 12/4/2005 12:43 PM
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absolutely right ... but more so i am looking for understanding on how nabi got as far as they did with staph-vax with no reports of bad results ... essentially they lied ? .... for months ? no way does anything go that far without SOMEBODY knowing .. for sure !! For certian !! ... that trial after trial something with staph vax wasn't working !

... And not ... " One hand didnt' know what the other was doing .. " or ... " its a complicated chain of events "... or " there is risk involved .. "

Sombody lied .. YES ? .. { anybody }

{ and .. anyone know if anyone from the company sold shares prior to the press release ? couple months before even ? }

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Author: StockOperator Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 269 of 291
Subject: Re: whats the deal here ? Date: 12/4/2005 2:28 PM
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Sombody lied .. YES ? .. { anybody }

This guy, Oren Levy of White Mountain Capital is a excellent contrary indicator of when to buy and sell. Pump and dump, in my opinion.
He has done it for numerous stocks in this sector - that I take it as a contrary indicator.

NABI -
09/27 - White Mountain Capital (research firm) recommends buy on the stock.
11/02 - White Mountain Capital (research firm) cuts rating of NABI stock.

RIGL -
11/11 - White Mountain Capital Reiterates Buy on Rigel Pharmaceuticals
(http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.asp?Symbol=US:RIGL&Feed=PR&Date=20051111&ID=5274487)
12/02 - White Mountain Capital Reduces Rating on Rigel Pharmaceuticals to HOLD (http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.asp?Symbol=US:RIGL&Feed=PR&Date=20051202&ID=5325047)



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