UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (13) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Prev | Next | Next Thread
Author: mauser96 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 253172  
Subject: Re: Top Detectors Date: 3/7/2013 1:49 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 1
Whether you are looking to avoid the first -5%, -10%,-15% etc of the start of a bear market in a way you are still trying to call a top. It's not easy to see that you are really in a bear market at any given moment, though very easy in retrospect. So some sort of methodology is needed, after prices have gone down 12% over a period of two months is it a bear market or just a temporary dip in the bull market? I'd like something to temper my gut feeling, which is usually wrong.

While the biggest risk to your wallet is in the last waterfall phase I would like to be out sometime before then. Considering that bull markets last longer than bear markets, and that so far eventually indices tend to go higher, I agree that bull markets should be given the benefit of the doubt. At least in countries that don't lose big wars.

Perhaps the biggest opportunity exists toward the end of a major bear market, the "I can't stand it anymore I have to get out" phase. Fortunately I do have good indicators for that, something to help me overcome the fear I share with others. But such opportunities are rare.
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post  
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (13) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Prev | Next | Next Thread

Announcements

Pencils of Promise - Back to School Drive
"Pencils of Promise works with communities across the globe to build schools and create programs that provide education opportunities for children."
Managing Your Wealth
Our own TMFHockeypop from Rule Your Retirement fame on the TV show Managing Your Wealth.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Post of the Day:
Apple

The Saddest Place on iPhone Day
What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
Community Home
Speak Your Mind, Start Your Blog, Rate Your Stocks

Community Team Fools - who are those TMF's?
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and "#1 Media Company to Work For" (BusinessInsider 2011)! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.
Advertisement