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While math in general (except geometry) was never my strong suit statistics in particular, I have a couple thoughts on TMF bents score and your criticism. TMFBent has made 458 picks so far with an average gain of 2% above the S&P per pick. TMFBent has 276 ended picks a quick peek at them looks like almost all green. It appears to me that TMF bent is hoarding score and accuracy as well.

There is a downside to hoarding that TMFBent might be experiencing. Once you lock in and start over with a new slate your accuracy is likely to take a big hit at least in the short term. My comments about one year two years, five years was meant to reflect that over time these things will even each other out.

You seem to feel there is some fundamental error in the accuracy calculations because reality is not coinciding with your mathmatical predictions. I'll leave that argument up to LoneIguana and some of the other more statistically inclined members to debate with you, it's way over my head.

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