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Author: WendyBG Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 35377  
Subject: Whither the 10 Year Treasury? Date: 7/27/2009 10:20 PM
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There was a huge discontinuity in the 10 Y Treasury market, due to panic flight-to-safety buying during the crisis of 4Q 2008- 1Q 2009.

The chart below shows the trend of the 10 Y Treasury from 1982 and also shows the real (inflation adjusted) rate as well as the nominal rate.

http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_mmnry.htm

The 10Y has been in a secular downtrend since 1982, with lower highs and lower lows (yields). This is partly because of declining inflation, and partly because of higher bidding by U.S. trading partners, which drive the price higher and the yield lower.

These trading partners are eager to keep their own currencies low, so they are less sensitive to real yield than they are to investing in a safe dollar-denominated investment.

The long-term nominal trend line has not been broken in a meaningful way recently. The recent nominal rate is simply bouncing back to a more normal level from the panic flight-to-safety buying of the 2008 crisis. It's normal for 10Y yields to peak in July -- that happens every year. There should be some minor bouncing around, then a decline in yields going into later 2009.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$TNX

The really unusual action is not the nominal yield, which is normalizing to the pre-crisis level, but the real (inflation adjusted) yield, which is unusually high. Inflation has been abnormally low in early 2009, due to the popping of the energy price bubble in July 2008. According to www.bls.gov, most of the deflation in 4Q2008- 1Q 2009 was due to lower energy prices.

As we all know, energy prices have risen since their nadir in early 2009.

With the real yield of the 10 Year Treasury so high, I would expect either an increase of inflation or a decrease in yields, or both.

Only a tremendous issuance of Treasuries, overwhelming demand, will keep prices low and real yields high if inflation is zero or less. As usual, Mish is predicting deflation. If he is right, real yields will be unusually high and Treasuries will be a fine investment -- unless the government issues too many.

There will be record Treasury sales tomorrow and in August. If demand is strong, the yields will be stable to down. If demand is weak, yields will rise.

I am interested in the 10 year Treasury because it affects mortgage rates, and I have shares in Vanguard GNMA fund.

I posted this on METAR because of the Macro underpinning, but I would also like comments from the Bond Board.

Wendy
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Author: hockeypop Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 28309 of 35377
Subject: Re: Whither the 10 Year Treasury? Date: 7/28/2009 7:13 AM
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The 10 year is an interesting time period precisely because it "may" be impacted by deflation, but almost certainly will be impacted in the long-term by inflation. That determination is above my paygrade.

But, I would keep in mind that many are looking at "real real" inflation statistics, namely before the adjustment. You can see those here:
http://www.shadowstats.com/

And Doug Short regularly refers to them in equities discussions here:
http://www.dshort.com/articles/2009/inflation-update.html

My point is that not only is 10 years somewhat a guess, BUT it's difficult to choose the measure you will use to define it.

Finally, we will possibly find another indicator today if dollars/treasuries remain the world's currency. I admit that for the first time I think we've started on a slippery slope to have that minimized as well. And, with fewer dollars available, rates will rise no matter the economic outlook.

Again, thanks for your posts!

Hockeypop

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Author: brucedoe Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 28314 of 35377
Subject: Re: Whither the 10 Year Treasury? Date: 7/28/2009 11:10 AM
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There was a WSJ article the other day that pointed out that the 10-yr Japanese treasury bond has a lower yield than does ours, and their total debt is just under 200% of GDP. Thus one might speculate that yield inflation here may be some time off.

IIRC, they did mention that most of Japan's debt is owned by the Japanese in contrast with the U.S. where about half the debt is held by foreigners. They said this as a cautionary note that what applies to Japan might not apply here.

brucedoe

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