by the author of guns germs steel

http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/diamond03/diamond_print.html

didn't anticipate a problem before it arrived
may have had prior experience but that prior experience has been forgotten
reasoning by false analogy
failing to perceive a problem that has actually arrived.
some problems are literally imperceptible
the problem may take the form of a slow trend concealed by wide up-and-down fluctuations
distant managers, a potential problem in any large society
failure even to try to solve a problem that it has perceived
clashes of interest
tragedy of commons
strongly attached to a bad status quo because it is favored by some deeply held value that we admire
psychological denial
too little too late
problem may just be too difficult, and beyond our present capacities to solve