by the author of guns germs steelhttp://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/diamond03/diamond_print.htmldidn't anticipate a problem before it arrivedmay have had prior experience but that prior experience has been forgottenreasoning by false analogyfailing to perceive a problem that has actually arrived. some problems are literally imperceptiblethe problem may take the form of a slow trend concealed by wide up-and-down fluctuationsdistant managers, a potential problem in any large societyfailure even to try to solve a problem that it has perceivedclashes of interest tragedy of commonsstrongly attached to a bad status quo because it is favored by some deeply held value that we admirepsychological denialtoo little too lateproblem may just be too difficult, and beyond our present capacities to solve
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