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Author: JoeandChuckP Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 121  
Subject: Why is the street surprised? Date: 7/31/2008 8:58 AM
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Good Qtr. Not so good guidance due to weak consumers.

Doesn't the weak consumer expectation manifest itself in the drop from 30 to 16? I guess not.

<SIGH>

CP
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Author: TMFSarahGen Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Ticker Guide Supernova Odyssey 1
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Subject: Re: Why is the street surprised? Date: 7/31/2008 9:31 AM
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Doesn't the weak consumer expectation manifest itself in the drop from 30 to 16? I guess not.

<SIGH>


Absolutely agree. It's tough to keep saying, "wow, this is an even better value point to enter" even though it is. Because who has endless free cash on the sidelines to buy into each new value point?

BARE has said (not so much shown as the actual numbers were good) for the first time that they are susceptible to a weak consumer.

They're huge repeat business is fantastic, but they're hitting slower new adoption, and new customers.

They have several new efforts going into the fall that should help (like a sampling program in September) to aggressively go after new customers. Plus there is the ongoing addition of new 'doors' as they expand in Nordstrom's, Macy's, and Ulta and Sephora aggressively open more doors into the end of the year. Should be a nice seasonal upswing into the end of the year.

But meanwhile, there is ... today..

Sarah

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Author: JoeandChuckP Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 106 of 121
Subject: Re: Why is the street surprised? Date: 7/31/2008 10:19 AM
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I'm optimistic, too, but red is not my favorite color.

For every DWSN I have, I have AKAM and BARE.

Rough 6 months.

CP

Still happy to be alive and employed.

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Author: TMFSarahGen Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Ticker Guide Supernova Odyssey 1
Mission Team Member CAPS All Star Global Fool SN Explorer 1 Mission Team Member Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 107 of 121
Subject: Re: Why is the street surprised? Date: 7/31/2008 10:30 AM
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For every DWSN I have, I have AKAM and BARE.


Tough there. I'm sorry.

If you check out conf calls for both, you'll see that both have kind of the same reason for their selloffs. Both are seeing economic headwinds.

I'm a little surprised at the over-reaction in BARE, and ULTA is taking a paired hit with it too.

I just think even a month from now we're going to see this was the very best time to accumulate the best in retail and consumer facing stocks. I could be wrong, I could be early. But back-to-school and Christmas have a way of surprising the market every year.

Sarah

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Author: JoeandChuckP Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 108 of 121
Subject: Re: Why is the street surprised? Date: 8/1/2008 11:52 AM
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I really think so. I'd say hope, but hope is bad for investing. :)

Lomax does a good bear arguement on the Fool though.

http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2008/07/31/bare-esce...

CP - down, but not out

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Author: aaabababac Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 109 of 121
Subject: Re: Why is the street surprised? Date: 8/1/2008 1:06 PM
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Motley Fool sucks this year..

All picks are getting hammered..INFN, Bare, HNSN..

Fools dont research enough anymore! time to jump off this ship itself.

Now you see they are recommending bare and making a bear argument on Yahoo! board.. Way to go :(

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Author: JaxandWes One star, 50 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 110 of 121
Subject: Re: Why is the street surprised? Date: 8/1/2008 11:45 PM
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BARE is not a MF rec. But we will miss you.

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Author: TomFoolNC Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 111 of 121
Subject: Re: Why is the street surprised? Date: 8/2/2008 2:30 PM
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it is actually, last issue.

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Author: whatismyoption Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 112 of 121
Subject: Re: Why is the street surprised? Date: 8/7/2008 1:31 AM
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Hi Sarah
Have I said congrats on your Analysting? If not, Congratulations. I smiled widely when you were named in the RB A team.

I just got back from holiday and was excited to see your pick of BARE. With the current swoon I thought this may be a fantastic pick. I've decided to sit on the sidelines and if anyone is interested some of my thoughts can be seen here http://www.fusioninvesting.com/blog/2008/08/bare-escentuals-...

In summary: Despite the fantastic reward to risk profile of 3:1 there is a real chance of major capital loss. I have seen a few other stellar small cosmetic companies implode over the years and while BARE certainly looks like good value with a possible high payoff the downside is zero.

Best
Dean

PS Sarah I look forward to your next pick.
One other comment. While Lynch preached buying what you know, there is also a danger in buying what you love. It is harder to be objective with a company when you personally love the product.)

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