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Author: gvorrasi Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 847  
Subject: Why shpould I renew my subscription to the GG se Date: 4/13/2012 4:29 PM
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Looks to me like the GG team has a poor record when it comes to recommendations...certainly not worth the investment to renew....this is what my analysis of the "Return vs S&P" showed:
2008, 40% beat the Return vs S&P
2009, 62.5%
2010, 29%
2011, 37%
2012, 30% (with a number of new analysts)

When you look at each year and the percentage of picks better than 10% and worse than (10)%, it gets even uglier.

So long GG Fools...best wishes.

Guvo1045
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Author: anuragupta Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Ticker Guide CAPS All Star Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 833 of 847
Subject: Re: Why shpould I renew my subscription to the G Date: 4/15/2012 11:20 AM
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I am frustrated too after being with GG for 5 years and having 90% of its picks but I look at things a bit differently. At GG I learned a lot about the pitfalls of global investing and also found some excellent firms. I believe that the journey has just started even if it has been 5 long eventful years of low returns from GG scorecard. The quality of info on the boards is well worth the sub for someone who knows how to invest successfully.

Anurag

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Author: TMFDoraemon Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 834 of 847
Subject: Re: Why shpould I renew my subscription to the G Date: 4/15/2012 11:54 AM
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Looks to me like the GG team has a poor record when it comes to recommendations...certainly not worth the investment to renew....this is what my analysis of the "Return vs S&P" showed:

It's rather unfortunate that we measure all of our Motley Fool services against the S&P 500. You would never see a diversified global fund measuring itself against a benchmark that it can only make limited investments in. We face the same issue in GG.

In reality we should be measured against the EFA or the ACWI. The EFA is on the scorecard, but we don't show returns against. (I track my recommendations against the EFA and around 65% - 70% of my recommendations have beat this benchmark).

I think the ACWI is a more appropriate benchmark as it has a mix of developed and emerging market equities in it, while the EFA is almost exclusively developed ex-US listings. Unfortunately, the ACWI didn't exist when we launched GG, but it is the benchmark I think is the most appropriate today.

The good news is I think the Fool is going to start measuring services against their most relevant benchmarks in the near future with the S&P 500 as a secondary measurement.

Best,

Nathan

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Author: anuragupta Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Ticker Guide CAPS All Star Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 835 of 847
Subject: Re: Why shpould I renew my subscription to the G Date: 4/15/2012 2:52 PM
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Nathan

The question still remains as to why a US investor not just dollar average into SPY or DJI.
The case for investing in international markets must be different than comparison to an index. It should perhaps be more towards finding safe vehicles for investing abroad. These could be stocks, funds, bonds or even real estate. I seem to get my fill of foreign exposure in equities via other TMF services. I am still into GG for those esoteric ideas that no other service dares to explore. I would appreciate dedicated coverage on foreign focused etfs.

anurag

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Author: TMFDoraemon Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 836 of 847
Subject: Re: Why shpould I renew my subscription to the G Date: 4/15/2012 8:30 PM
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The question still remains as to why a US investor not just dollar average into SPY or DJI.

Anurag,

An investor should probably dollar cost average into those vehicles or into US stocks that are within those vehicles. That's a separate decision from whether or not to invest globally.

Once you make the decision to invest globally you're largely (there are exceptions like Coke) talking about investing in companies not in the S&P, so you should measure the performance against an index of like companies.

Right now it's obvious that looking at the last 4-5 years you'd say why invest internationally when you could buy the S&P and perform better? Had we looked at data from 1998 to 2008 we would see the EFA blowing away the SPY and the question would be reversed. Why invest in the S&P when you can just invest internationally?

That's the rub, only investors don't know whether the SPY or EFA will outperform over the next five years from today.

I am still into GG for those esoteric ideas that no other service dares to explore.

Which ideas are these? I don't mind the occasional esoteric idea, but I don't have a ton of interest in them.

I would appreciate dedicated coverage on foreign focused etfs.

The right way to provide coverage of these vehicles is to dig into the top 10 - 25 holdings in each and cover them, then roll up the coverage based on their weightings in the index. That can be done, but I think it's more work than you realize and would be expensive to do -- unless the customer is also paying for the coverage of the underlying companies in the index, then rolling it up could be a throw in.

What you're really paying for there is opinions on 10-25 companies per country and the coverage of the etf is just an average of those opinions. Beyond 4 etfs you're talking about a more resource intensive endeavor than GG (assuming regular updates for earnings and trans-formative events)

The other issue is that some of these vehicles aren't really great investments, because their overweight in one or two sectors and those aren't necessarily the sectors that are the fastest growing or most attractively valued -- and that's leaving aside the question of whether an investor wants or needs exposure to them.

Just some thoughts to keep in mind as you look at country etfs.

Best,

Nathan

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Author: anuragupta Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Ticker Guide CAPS All Star Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 837 of 847
Subject: Re: Why shpould I renew my subscription to the G Date: 4/16/2012 9:40 AM
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Nathan

I consider a lot of GG picks - slt hdb blx pvd swire kpely etc. - esoteric due to these being far more difficult to understand in a short period of time.

The rapid rise of emerging markets pre 2008 also coincided with an era of far less ADRs, ETFs and brokerage flexibility in acquiring pink sheets. Newsletters like SA and HG excelled even during pre 2008 era with US stocks. So the idea that a market needs to perform well to do good in individual stocks is not exactly convincing.

The reason I favor etfs is due to etfs like vwo doing better than GG scorecard. Vwo is hardly concentrated in one or two firms. Country specific etfs such as ewy eido have done quite well too. I agree these would be lot more work but I think these have a better potential than individual stocks with some exceptions.

Anurag

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Author: TMFDoraemon Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 838 of 847
Subject: Re: Why shpould I renew my subscription to the G Date: 4/16/2012 10:33 AM
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The rapid rise of emerging markets pre 2008 also coincided with an era of far less ADRs, ETFs and brokerage flexibility in acquiring pink sheets. Newsletters like SA and HG excelled even during pre 2008 era with US stocks. So the idea that a market needs to perform well to do good in individual stocks is not exactly convincing.

That's not what I said.

What I said is you have two universes of stocks and they're pretty much exclusive without overlap. So comparing the performance from one group with the other group does not make sense.

The reason I favor etfs is due to etfs like vwo doing better than GG scorecard. Vwo is hardly concentrated in one or two firms. Country specific etfs such as ewy eido have done quite well too.

I didn't say one or two I said 10-25.

Nathan

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Author: anuragupta Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Ticker Guide CAPS All Star Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 839 of 847
Subject: Re: Why shpould I renew my subscription to the G Date: 4/16/2012 11:50 AM
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Typo. I meant 1-2 sectors than firms. Vwo is not that concentrated in 1-2 sectors. Comparing performance with US stocks is inevitable. Besides international sectors in general being flat is no excuse as there were always Intel stocks available that did well.

Anurag

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Author: TMFDoraemon Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 840 of 847
Subject: Re: Why shpould I renew my subscription to the G Date: 4/16/2012 12:02 PM
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Typo. I meant 1-2 sectors than firms. Vwo is not that concentrated in 1-2 sectors. Comparing performance with US stocks is inevitable. Besides international sectors in general being flat is no excuse as there were always Intel stocks available that did well.

Perhaps it is inevitable, but let's not pretend that a comparison with the SPY wouldn't have been very different if you looked at a different period. And the same argument could have been made about US stocks during that period there were US stocks that did well.

None of that is the point. The point is once you say I'm investing x% globally than that x% should be compared to global stocks and not US stocks. If you're going to say there's no need to invest globally because the US outperformed over a certain period, than you are using hindsight bias and cherry picking data.

Also, using only the VWO is a bit faulty as it is *only* emerging market shares and the GG view is broader than that -- we look at both emerging and developed foreign markets.

The bottom line is I'm not saying you have to like the GG performance or pretending this has been a great ride. I'm just saying you have to compare apples-to-apples, not apples-to-whatever is convenient for making a negative argument.

Best,

Nathan

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Author: Anysimplefool Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 841 of 847
Subject: Re: Why shpould I renew my subscription to the G Date: 4/16/2012 12:37 PM
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Nathan:

Do you ever fell like you are in the fighting knights scene in Monty Python and the Holy Grail? The bloodied torso still wants to fight.


Simple

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Author: Anysimplefool Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 842 of 847
Subject: Re: Why shpould I renew my subscription to the G Date: 4/16/2012 1:46 PM
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Fell, feel, close enough. Will we ever be able to edit posts?

Simple

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Author: anuragupta Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Ticker Guide CAPS All Star Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 843 of 847
Subject: Re: Why shpould I renew my subscription to the G Date: 4/16/2012 2:24 PM
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Nathan

That is why I said subjecting GG to an index comparison hides the true worth of GG. At a scorecard level you will always find the argument that if SA could smash its relevant scorecard why not any other? I doubt GG smashed any relevant index. My point is that there is no need to perform that way to justify the sub.

Anurag

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Author: TMFDoraemon Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 844 of 847
Subject: Re: Why shpould I renew my subscription to the G Date: 4/17/2012 12:27 PM
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My point is that there is no need to perform that way to justify the sub.

Thanks, Anurag, that's very kind of you to say. I like the sentiment, but I disagree. I think we need to offer interesting ideas, timely coverage of events, long-term thinking and education, and beat our relevant index while doing it.

I doubt GG smashed any relevant index.

We are beating the EFA quite handily. At the time we launched that was the most relevant index in existence and it's still the one most international mutual funds measure themselves against. I suspect we beat the ACWI, too, which is a newer ETF (and a more appropriate comparison, I think, because it is a better mix of developed and emerging markets), but I don't have the proof.

I only have detailed data on my selections. I an tell you my recommendations have beat the EFA (by a mile -- about 15% on average), ACWI (by a bit less), and VWO (by 1% on average). My recommendations trail the S&P 500 by 0.5%, so I'm close but not quite there. (And yes, the S&P has outperformed the EFA by that much.)

Best,

Nathan

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Author: anuragupta Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Ticker Guide CAPS All Star Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 845 of 847
Subject: Re: Why shpould I renew my subscription to the G Date: 4/17/2012 2:05 PM
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Nathan

Beating a relevant a la SA, RBS or classic HG is what makes - for me - individual stock investing meaningful. I am able to do so with GG now but GG scorecard lags that kind of metric . That us why I said GG is of tremendous use to those who have learnt how to invest successfully.

Anurag

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Author: LTInvestorJim Big red star, 1000 posts Ticker Guide Global Fool SC1 Blue Captain Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 846 of 847
Subject: Re: Why shpould I renew my subscription to the G Date: 4/18/2012 9:55 PM
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Just to get our facts straight before someone rushes out to buy VWO based on this string, these are total return numbers from Morningstar:

VWO
1 month: -4.12%
3 month: 3.30%
1 year: -9.80%
3 year: 18.53

ACWI
1 month: -2.51%
3 month: 5.56%
1 year: -1.12%
3 year: 16.05%

SPY
1 month: -1.20%
3 month: 8.30%
1 year: 7.82%
3 year: 18.89%

(Periods greater than 1 year are annualized)

VWO hasn't done so great. Of course, that is just because developing market stocks in general haven't done great. As Nathan points out, that does not predict anything about the future.

Jim

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Author: anuragupta Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Ticker Guide CAPS All Star Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 847 of 847
Subject: Re: Why shpould I renew my subscription to the G Date: 4/19/2012 10:26 AM
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Jim

http://boards.fool.com/1106/my-experience-with-gg-stocks-and...

Replied to your post on the new thread above.

Anurag

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