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Author: intercst Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 76420  
Subject: Re: Annual Percent Withdrawals Date: 8/2/1999 7:20 PM
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WilliamLipp writes,

At 38, the only recession you have seen in your working lifetime is the mild downturn around 1992. My fear is that the only time you are looking for work is when none will be available. I've a bit of grey in my beard, and have seen several periods where 50% of engineering school graduates didn't have a job by the Winter after graduation, and even MacDonald's weren't
hiring. My advice is to be less sanguine about how easy it will be to supplement income with work.


I agree with William on this one, caution is called for.

The worst 30 year period for the S&P500 was the years 1929-1959. To survive that period with a portfolio of 71% stock/29% fixed income, you would have had to limit your inflation-adjusted withdrawals to 3.81% of your original balance. See link:

http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/8257/restud1.html

If I'm not mistaken, Ann Coleman's work uses data from 1961-1998. I believe you need to examine the period after the Crash of 1929 to come up with a really "safe" withdrawal rate in retirement. After all, look what has happened in Japan over the past 10 years. From a high of almost 40,000 the Nikki average has dropped as low as 11,000. Even super bull Harry S. Dent is predicting a 70% drop in the US stock market for the years 2008 to 2022.

intercst
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