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Author: misterkaygee Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 40850  
Subject: Re: Modified Dow Investing Date: 12/29/1999 2:32 AM
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Within the context of the F4/RP, using EPS instead of yield is not a good idea. They are two different animals, period.

As a strategy in its own right, using EPS, EPS growth, or EPS growth projections to help find good investments is a *great* idea.

The F4 is a rather particular approach that is suited to a particular type of individual. If you're already FOOLing around with alternatives, my feeling is that it's time for you to move on rather than to be looking for ways to modify the F4. There's lots of info available right here on TMF to help you.

Through reading Ann's columns, the F4 tutorial, and the boards, and through following the developments in the strategy over the past couple of months, I've come to understand that the F4 is merely one application of a broader philosophy: value investing.

You can use value investing to beat the market averages over the long run because --pardon me for saying this, ye proponents of market ideology-- a *great* many of the folks who are in the market are idiots who are just scattering money around and then scrambling to pick it up. The "wisdom" of market pricing ("every stock is worth exactly its current price") is bullspit.

Don't buy a stock unless it looks like a bargain in terms of something definite, be that tangible property, accounts receivable, or earnings projections. The F4 works because it uses something definite (dividend yield) in concert with some other definites (substantial capitalization and a history of successful adaptive behavior); the "dog" element is an additional tweak thrown in as a promise of room for the price to grow in historical terms.

People who buy a stock solely because they think somebody else is going to buy it back from them at a higher price are creating the conditions that a value investor can profit from. One of the reasons it's harder to make money in a bear market is that people *think* in a bear markets.

You can also use value investing to good effect in the short run while greatly reducing your risk, in comparison to the risk incurred by the fad-followers. You won't get the returns they're expecting, but then neither will they some of the time. :-)

Good Lord. You ask a simple question, look what you get....
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