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Author: Frydaze1 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 72483  
Subject: Re: OT: Fun with odds Date: 11/13/2012 4:27 PM
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Woot, I got one right! (Prances around for a moment like an idiot.)


Game B was like Schrodinger's Cat to me. Until the box is opened, all probabilities are equal. The fact that the distribution of color is unequal doesn't mean anything because I have zero knowledge of the which one you've increased. So even if I'm trying to guess which has more, instead flipping a coin, my odds of guessing correctly are 50/50.

It doesn't even matter if I know what the split is. If I know it's 80/20, but I don't know which color has the 80, it's still 50/50 that I'll win. My odds of choosing the color with higher distribution, along with my odds of pulling that color out of the box, exactly balance my odds of choosing the lower color and pulling that out of the box.

Boil this down to its ultimate extreme: I know that all the balls in the box are one color (or the box only contains one ball - same thing) and you can see why it's the same game. I still have 50/50 of knowing which color it is.


Frydaze1
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