Meter Reader weighs in on COP:http://www.mcdep.com/mr120925.pdfWe recommend the common stock of independent oil and gas producer ConocoPhillips (COP) for unlevered appreciation potential of 42% to estimated net present value (NPV) of $96 a share. Active drilling on company lands in each of the top three shale oil plays, Eagle Ford, Bakken and Permian, promises 70% of 300,000 barrels equivalent daily of COP worldwide production growth expected by 2016 (see slides Eagle Ford and Permian on page 2). We are intrigued that the traditionally valuable San Juan Basin may attract new enthusiasm as COP applies breakthrough fracking to the Mancos shale, a rich formation historically not willing to give up its natural gas as readily as the Mesa Verde, Dakota, and Fruitland which are the main contributors of current production. Other sources of growth that chief executive Ryan Lance emphasizes include Canada, the North Sea, Australia and Malaysia. Recent press reports allude to a $6 billion deal with oil companies from India, which would buy into the company’s deep oil sands resources in Canada (see slide Canada SAGD on page 3). Oil dominates NPV at 74% while natural gas is nearly half of volume (see tables Functional Cash Flow and Present Value on page 3 and Next Twelve Months Operating and Financial Estimates on page 4). In an optimistic sign for future value, natural gas for the next six years, priced recently at $4.24 a million Btu, trades at its highest weekly level since mid-January when the warm winter price collapse began (chart Natural Gas Futures on page 10). The history-making, for its size, separation of the predecessor integrated company into an independent producer, COP, and an independent refiner/petrochemical company, Phillips 66 (PSX), appears to have been well-timed for stockholder success, especially evident in PSX’s 35% stock price advance. Rich
Good work Rich, thanks.Based on all the above any pull back of the stockit should be viewed as an opportunity to buy.While oil production has increased so has the demandand that's good news because we may the stock to goto $65.00!PHOINIX20The Eternal Bird
On COP:The PE and PEG ratios are good. The company is "cheap" when looked at from an earnings and growth perspective.However, COP is holding a lot of debt. IMO this makes holding this company a bit riskier than some of its competitors (e.g. XOM or CVX).That said, I do own some COP but am not seeking to expand my position all that much at this time.Disclaimer: I own all 3 stocks, XOM, CVX, and COP.
I think that one of the reasons that COP is sellingcertain assets is perhaps to reduce debt and make thestock more attractive. We'll see! I have own Phillips, since 1985. I bought it the veryday Boone Pickens, made a foray for the company and bought more on...Black Monday...:) So I have what I have which I think is enough for me. Would I buy more??? That woulddepend on my cash position and the market in general.And I also hold some XOM, which I consider to be a Bond Surrogate and have it for years. I think that all three companies that you mentionedare good. Oil, is going to be with us for a long time,30 years down the road at least. Long after I am gone.If I was younger and had cash I would buy three or fourmore oil companies....PHOINIX20The Eternal Bird
Clearly the split/spinoff works well for both companies. I'm a believer!