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Author: HCourtney Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 2705  
Subject: Wyckoff S&P Date: 3/23/2002 12:59 AM
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It's interesting that the Wyckoff Climax principles of PS/PSY (Preliminary Support/Preliminary Supply), SC/BC (Selling Climax/Buying Climax), AR (Automatic Reaction), and ST (Secondary Test) may possibly be applied even to minor tops and bottoms, as evident in recent S&P action.

Looking at that minor bottom, labled in blue: First is the PS on strong vol, which finds support at the 3/22/01 low (which goes back to the support line of a range 3/98 - 6/98, as well as a month-long pivot point during Oct of last year). This is followed by the lower SC on cumulative high vol in that same area.

The AR lasts about a week as vol diminishes significantly (textbook behavior for the AR), meeting resistance at the bottom of the range of the previous top (always defined by the BC/SC and AR). This area is also the resistance line of that 3/98 - 6/98 range. Note also it just breaks the dtl and then reverses.

The ST/Spring occurs on lower vol (again, textbook). The subsequent rally breaks the dtl, pausing briefly at the AR before breaking out well. This new high on strong vol and long spreads closing on the highs is an SOS (Sign of Strength) w/in this minor bottom. This sharp rally (note how it pulls away from the utl) creates an overbought condition which meets resistance at the previous highs. Once again this price behavior at another top can be defined in terms of Wyckoff, as I've labled it in yellow. (Note the brief but clear PSY occurs at the 200d ema resistance.)

After ranging for a couple weeks between the high and support at the 200d ema, the last two days have dropped below this area. Wyckoff refers to this as Breaking the Ice, which is a rather quaint term for breaking below the most recent lows and is a potential SOW (Sign of Weakness). These lows and the 200d ema are now acting as resistance. Note however price is still hanging around the upper-half of the range.

Furthermore, since we know there are trends w/in trends, one may look at this whole chart as the entire extended range of the previous 12/01 Buying Climax, labled in red. Note how the whole minor selling climax is several SOW's w/in the larger range. The March action is another test of the ST. In this sense it is weak since it does not even break that ST. This latest area becomes the LPSY (Last Point of Supply) for now.

Harold
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