Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (2) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Next Thread
Author: MattMiler Two stars, 250 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 36  
Subject: Xicor Inherent Value Date: 5/10/2000 5:56 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
I just ran an Inherent Value calc on Xicor with the following inputs:

Revenue Growth Rates: 20% for 3 years, followed by 5% in perpetuity.

Fiscal Year 2000 Revenues: $138M (Source: 1Q Actuals + Chase H&Q projections for 2Q,3Q,4Q)

Operating Profit Margins - 17% (Source: Chase)

Tax Rate - 35%

Cost of Capital (self-calculated) - 11.3%

I discounted the Free Cash Flows for an explicit period (3 years) followed by a residual period and arrived at an inherent value of $18.51. This is slightly below last weeks trading range and significantly above current price of $6.31.

My most conservative (WAY overly conservative in my opinion) valuation has an IV of $8.06, a premium of 25% over current stock price. I see little, if any downside to this stock.

I have an 18 month price target of $22 on XICO. I bought 400 shares (I'm young, so this isn't a bad sized position for my portfolio) and I plan to buy 500 more in the near future.

This is now my most watched stock. Rambus (RMBS) and Cymer (CYMI) have to settle for spots #2 and #3, respectively.

- Matt
Print the post Back To Top
Author: F4kdsbzy Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30 of 36
Subject: Re: Xicor Inherent Value Date: 5/13/2000 2:26 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
I am new to the investing world (& know nothing about what i'm doing) & new to Xicor. I figured if the analysts thought it was good at 17 - it ought to be terrific at 6 1/2. Amazes me how a company that still has earnings ,just 2 cents off of what they projected can still have a huge drop. This investing stuff is going to be hard to understand.

Print the post Back To Top
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (2) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Next Thread
Advertisement