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Author: originalupndn Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Ticker Guide Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 114  
Subject: Re: KORS Page 31 Beta Edition Date: 11/14/2012 9:31 PM
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Year End March 31-April 3

Statement of Operations:           2008          2009          2010          2011          2012          2013

Net sales                     296,176       377,058       483,452       757,800       1,237,100      Co. Estimate
Royalty revenue                16,479        20,016        24,647        45,539          65,154        9/20/12
_______________________________________________________________________________________________
Total revenue                 312,655       397,074       508,099       803,339       1,302,254     1.85-1.95 Billion
Cost of goods sold            165,947       208,283       241,365       357,274         549,158       $1.39-1.41 /sh
_______________________________________________________________________________________________
Gross profit                  146,708       188,791       266,734       446,065         753,096      was $1.32-1.34
                                                                                                       on 8/14/12

SG&A                          108,407       147,490       191,717       279,822         464,568      was $1.08-1.12
Depreciation                   10,289        14,020        18,843        25,543          37,554        on 6/12/12
Impairment                      1,844         3,043          --           3,834           3,292      --------------
_______________________________________________________________________________________________
Total operating expenses      120,540       164,553       210,560       309,199         505,414       now on 11/13/12
_______________________________________________________________________________________________      1.86-1.96 Billion
Income from operations         26,168        24,238        56,174       136,866         247,682        $1.48-1.50
                                                                                                       on 30% SSS
Interest expense                2,760         1,600         2,057         1,861           1,495
Foreign currency loss(income)    (147)          391          (830)        1,786          (2,629)
Income before provision 
for income taxes               23,555        22,247        54,947       133,219         248,816
Provision for income taxes    (36,562)        9,208        15,699        60,713         101,452
_______________________________________________________________________________________________
Net income                     60,117        13,039        39,248        72,506         147,364
Net inc. to pref shareholders  12,959         2,811         8,460        15,629          21,227
_______________________________________________________________________________________________
Net inc. ordinary shareholders 47,158        10,228        30,788        56,877         126,137
Average Shares:
Basic                     140,554,377   140,554,377   140,554,377   140,554,377     158,258,126
Diluted                   179,177,268   179,177,268   179,177,268   179,177,268     189,299,197
Net EPS:
Basic                           $0.34         $0.07         $0.22         $0.40           $0.80
Diluted                         $0.34         $0.07         $0.22         $0.40           $0.78

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

Retail Store Count                 48            74           106           166             237
Same Store Sales Growth(SSS)     17.5%          6.3%         19.2%         48.2%           39.2%

Wholesale Doors                               1,313         1,600         2,032           2,677
Increase                                                      287           432             645
Percentage Increase                                            22%           27%             32%

Quarterly Info

Q1 2011 Rev 151,516  Gross Profit 82,354 Inc from Op 17,180 Net 11,752
Q2 2011     189,369              102,827             32,122     15,591


                          12/31/10      4/02/11      7/02/11      9/30/11      12/31/11      3/31/12      6/30/12      9/30/12 
                           Q3/2011      Q4/2011      Q1/2012      Q2/2012       Q3/2012      Q4/2012      Q1/2013      Q2/2013

Net Sales                  208,824      226,536      232,282      287,925       353,988      362,905      397,370      513,065
Royalty Rev                 13,628       13,467       10,844       17,607        19,618       17,085       17,495       19,870
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________   
Total Revenue              222,452      240,003      243,126      305,532       373,606      379,990      414,865      532,935
Cost of Goods               95,688      105,882      106,157      130,432       151,701      160,868      163,865      217,035

Gross Profit               126,764      134,121      136,969      175,100       221,905      219,122      251,000      315,900
Total Operating Exp         81,833       91,487       91,993      115,822       157,318      140,281      139,057      157,972
Income from Operations      44,931       42,634       44,976       59,278        64,587       78,841      111,943      157,928
Interest Exp                   468          163          671          (11)          452          383          435          555
Foreign Currency (income)   (2,421)       4,594        1,507       (3,236)       (2,191)       1,291         (375)        (275)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Income before Taxes         46,884       37,877       42,798       62,525        66,326       77,167      111,883      157,648
Income Taxes                19,094       20,504       18,683       21,919        27,295       33,555       43,238       59,820
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Net Income                  27,790       17,373       24,115       40,606        39,031       43,612       68,645       97,828
Net to Pref. Shares          5,990        3,745        5,198        8,975         7,032          -            -            -
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Net Income to Common        21,800       13,628       18,917       31,631        31,999       43,612       68,645       97,828
Shares Outstanding                                                        
Basic                      140,554        same         same       146,555       154,738      191,184      192,790      194,324
Diluted                    179,177        same         same       187,580       193,584      196,855      199,391      200,192

Net per share
Basic                        $0.16        $0.10        $0.13        $0.22         $0.21        $0.23        $0.36        $0.50
Diluted                      $0.16        $0.10        $0.13        $0.22         $0.20        $0.22        $0.34        $0.49
                                                                    $0.25*        $0.28* 
                                                                   *Negates IPO expenses 
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Income less Foreign         -2,421       +4,594       +1,979       (7,633)       -1,345       +2,231       -3,278       +4,744
Currency Adjustment        $25,448       22,071       26,094       32,973        37,686       45,843       65,367      102,572

Balance Sheet Items                      4/2/11       7/2/12      10/1/11      12/31/11      3/31/12      6/30/12      9/29/12
Shareholders equity	                125,320      151,413      302,293       375,261      456,327      535,650      777,978
Goodwill & Intangibles                   28,557       29,454       28,974        28,557       28,151       27,689       27,538
Property & Equipment                    119,323      120,731      134,746       155,728      170,755      180,317      194,114

Inventory                               117,173      122,015      146,744       160,800      187,413      246,601      278,368

Revenue by Region
North America              213,795      222,927      225,768      274,701       343,432      339,332      377,149      471,424
Europe                      27,590       16,451       15,864       28,709        27,590       36,627       33,387       56,651
Other Regions                  259          625        1,494        2,122         2,584        4,031        4,329        4,860

Revenue by Segment
Retail                     109,067       95,489      122,344      133,431       199,376      172,187      215,004      242,280
Wholesale                   99,757      131,047      109,938      154,494       154,612      190,718      182,366      270,785
Licensing                   13,628       13,467       10,844       17,607        19,618       17,085       17,495       19,870
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

12/14/11 IPO Priced @ $20 on 54,280,000 shares

Q3 2012 / Dec 31, 2011

Sales 373.6 up 68% from 222.5
Retail 199.4 up 82.8% 
28 new stores, 75 in 12 mo., total 231 vs 156
Wholesale 154.6 up 55%
Royalty 19.6 up 44%
Gross Income 221.9 up 75.1%
Gross % of Sales 59.4 vs 57%
Operating Income 64.6 up 43.7% vs 44.9
Op. In. % of Sales 17.3% vs 20.2%
Non GAAP 85.7 = 22.9% of Sales (IPO costs)
Net Income 39M vs 27.8M
Earnings per share .20 vs .16 
Share Count 193.6M vs 179.2M
Non GAAP .28
Same Store Sales
N America +38%
Europe +34.4% (Rev +200%)

Income from Operations Breakdown
Retail 34,711 17.4% of Sales vs 27,148 24.9%
Wholesale 17,778 11.5% of Sales vs 10,641 10.7%
Licensing 12,098 61.7% of Sales vs 7,142 52.4%

Forecast: 350-355M 10-12 cents on 197M shares 40% Tax
Trading Range: $24.20 to $27.41
________________________________________________________

3/9/12 Files Reg. for Secondary of 28,750,000 shares
3/19/12 Updates guidance to 350-360M and 14-16 cents, 79-81 cents for the year, non GAAP
3/23/12 Secondary is priced at $47
________________________________________________________

Q4 2012 6/12/12

Sales 380 up 58.3% from 240
Retail 172.2 up 80.3% from 95,489
6 new stores, 71 in 12 mo., total 237 vs 166
+64 Licensed stores = 301 total. N Amer 191, Intl 46
Wholesale 190.7 up 45.5%
Royalty 17.1 up 26.9%
Gross Income 219.1 up 63.4%
Gross % of Sales 57.7% vs 55.9%
Operating Income 78.8 up 84.9% vs 42.6
Op. In. % of Sales 20.7% vs 17.8%
Net Income 43.6 vs 17.4
Earnings per share .22 vs .10
Share Count 196.9 vs 179.2
Same Store Sales
N America +37.2%
Europe +13.6% (Rev +122.6%)
Licensing +26.9%

Income from Operations Breakdown
Retail 33,959 19.7% of Sales vs 14,707 15.4%
Wholesale 34,477 18.1% of Sales vs 16,386 12.5%
Licensing 10,405 61% of Sales vs 11,541 85.7%

Fiscal 2012 Totals

Sales 1.3B up 62.1% from 803.3
Retail 626.9 up 82.1%
71 new stores
Same Store Sales +39.2%
Wholesale 610.2 up 47.5% from 413.6
Royalty 65.2 up 43.1% from 45.5
Gross Income 753.1 up 68.8% from 446.1
Gross % of Sales 57.8% vs 55.5%
Operating Income 247.7 up 81% vs 136.9
Op. In. % of Sales 19% vs 17%
Net Income 147.4 vs 72.5
Earnings per share .78 vs .40
Share Count 189.3 vs 179.2

Forecast
Q1 360-370 
SSS +35%
18-20 cents per share
199M shares

2013 1.7B-1.8B
SSS +20% 
$1.08-$1.12
201.2M shares and 38% tax
_______________________________________________

Q1 2013 8/14/12

Sales 414.9 up 71% from 243.1
Retail 215 up 76% from 122.3
20 new stores, 76 new year over year
177 plus 68 licensed = 321 stores
Same Store Sales +37.3%
Wholesale 182.4 up 66% from 109.9
Royalty 17.5 up 61% from 10.8
Gross Income 251 up 83.2% from 137
Gross % of Sales 60.5% vs 56.3%
Operating Income 111.9 up 149% from 45.0
Op. In. % of Sales 27% vs 18.5%
Net Income 68.6 up 185% from 24.1
Earnings per share .34 vs .13
Share Count 199.4 vs 179.2
Same Store Sales
N America 38.4%
Europe 24.2%

Forecast
Q2 490-500
SSS +30%
33-35 cents per share
201M shares

2013 1.8B-1.9B
SSS +25-29%
$1.32-$1.34
____________________________________________

9/7/12 Files for 26,450,000 secondary 
9/20/12 Company ups forecast to 510-520, 38-40 cents, SSS 45% as of 9/20/12
1.85B-1.95B, $1.39-$1.41 for fiscal 2013 SSS 30%
9/25/12 Completes secondary shares for $53
This should total 109,480,000 in the public float now
____________________________________________

Q2 2013 11/13/12

Sales 532.9 up 74% from 305.5
Retail 242.3 up 82% from 133,431
Same Store Sales up 45.1%
66 New Stores in 12 mo. now 269 retail stores
80 Licensed Locations for total of 349 Worldwide
Wholesale 270.8 up 75% from 154.5
Licensing Sales up 13% to 19.9
Gross Income 315.9 up 80% from 175.1
Gross % of Sales 59.3% from 57.3%
Operating Income 157.9 up 126% from 70.0
Op. In. 29.6% up from 22.9%
Net Income 97.8 up 106% from 47.5
Earnings per share .49 vs .25
Same Store Sales
N America up 45.1%
Europe up **************

Forecast
Q3 525-535
SSS 25% +-
37-39 cents per share
202M shares

2013 1.86-1.96B
SSS 30%
$1.48-$1.50
-------------------------------------
Some quick notes
10 new stores in the US
4 in Europe
2 in Japan
Total 16 new in Q2

Potential of 400 stores in the US
10 to 15 new per year in Europe
Japan 10 new this year
Japan 100 stores in time
55 NE Stores affected by Hurricane Sandy
most are open but overall cost hard to ascertain 
Accessories are 79% of store sales
67 Outlet stores in the US
89 Outlets total worldwide
Believe there is market for 1000 accessories stores
and 1000 ready to wear shops.
Link to the CC;
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1003961-michael-kors-holding...
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