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Author: joelxwil Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 46847  
Subject: Re: Secular bear vs. normal bear Date: 5/11/2005 9:14 AM
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Yes, Cameron is right.

However, how do you tell where you are?

Some people use the 50 and 200 day exponential moving averages. If the 50 is above the 200, then we are in a bull market; otherwise a bear market. But within a bull or bear market there may be shorter term movements up or down. These may be profitably traded.

We had a positive crossover on 5/27/2003, if you look at SPY. Since then there have been tradable ups and downs, but we are still in the bull condition, if you use that definition. If you look at IWM, there was a positive crossovr a few days earlier, and things have been more volatile. If you look at QQQQ, the picture is mixed, to say the least.

The only advantage to this kind of analysis is that in a bull market the pullbacks are going to be smaller, and you will have to close out your short positions quickly if you want a profit. Of course, the movement down may be too short for you to have a profit at all. Conversely if you are in a bear market. Of course I am talking about long and short positions in the indices. Individual stocks may be quite different.
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