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Yes, if you know your funds will outproform an index over the next 20 years, by all means stay out of the index funds. However most funds do worse then the index funds.
The only sure way I know of to perdict what the best investment over the next 30 years (you will retire in less then 30 years with it) involves religion and either vowing to poverty (without telling the seceret or taking advantage of it) or selling your soul to the devil. Neither look like good options to most people, and the devil isn't going to buy souls that he already owns.
(don't read the above to imply that the rich have sold thier soul. I never ascribe to malaice what can be ascribed to stupidity, sloth or dumb luck.)
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