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Author: TMFBreakerDave Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Supernova Phoenix 1
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Subject: Re: For people who think CAPS is a trading game Date: 10/6/2006 6:06 PM
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You have to start somewhere, right? So you start. Call that Day One. At the end of Day One, you have a grand total of one day's results. By showing standings, or a leader, what have you, the conclusions are off one day's results. A criticism is heard: "This game is all about one day. It's totally short term." Etc.

Then comes Day Two. You now have twice as much data as you had before... but still only two days. Conclusion: "This game is all about rewarding short-term."

A month passes. You now have a few thousand people and have achieved some degree of separation. Some people have already picked a stock that has doubled. Others have been wrong 88% of the time across 100 picks. But... still... you have only 31 days of data. A new person joins. Sees the leaderboard. Concludes: "Daytrader's game."

Three months pass... six months pass... fewer criticisms. A year... people begin to recognize that returns are compounding a bit for the patient ones... others see crazy people jumping in and out, and lots of them are wrong... but some of them are actually right. People start to realize there are many ways of beating the market.... More time passes... the criticisms, this criticism, is rarely heard much, anymore....

You had to start somewhere. --D
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