No. of Recommendations: 1
Your imagination is so powerful. You always know what I am thinking ... even though it has no relationship to what I am actually thinking.

My reference to polls prior to this has never been that it was sewn up because there is still time to go and lots of things could happen ... in both directions. What I was responding to was the conviction you and others had that all signs pointed to Romney ... or, at least some isolated poll pointed to him ... and that the preponderance of the evidence did not support that view. Now, you are doing it again ... jumping the gun at a few data points without waiting for the trend to appear.

Let's not forget that, at best, what the debate did was to put the race back where it was before the conventions. Post convention, Obama got a bump and a significant part of it stuck beyond the period where bumps usually wore off, making the race farther apart than it was before the conventions ... far enough apart that Romney needed major help to even get within any margin of error. The first debate seems to have narrowed things again, but, just that, more or less closer to pre-convention numbers ... numbers which still look pretty solid for Obama. Nate Silver's probability hit a peak of about 84% and is now down to 78%.
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