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You're assuming Nevada will go to Romney which is possible but tough. Dems have a 100k edge in registered voters over Reps and there's only 1.50 million voters. Dems are +7 over Reps after early voting with 20% independents and early voting being about 65-70% of the final total. There is at most 35% of the vote remaining to be cast on election day. Early voting was 56% of the registered base this year and overall turnout is expected to be about 80% like it was in 2008.

I'm hoping Romney wins but there are easier ways to get to 270 without Nevada. If he wins Nevada I'll agree with the idea that Romney will probably go 300+ and easily win.
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