Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (3) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Next Thread
Author: JHHJR Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 12  
Subject: YPF Date: 5/15/1998 5:47 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
YPF has had a "reinstate as buy" on May 12 by Paul Ting at Salomon Smith Barney, and the ASrgentine shares were made an "add" by Probhas Panigrahi at Dredener Kleinword Benson Securities Ltd. on May 1, with 12 mo. price targets of $42 and $38 respectively (these per Bloomberg on those days). Targetrs not that much above the present $35. Two other securities firms were quoted within the month by Bloomberg as maintaining "buy" ratings but not quoted as giving price targets.
But the Argentine gov't announced on May 8 (again, per Bloomberg) that it would sell in the last half of 1998, possibly early in that half, its 20% stake in YPF through bankers (a $2.45 billion sale says Bloomberg), I just saw the gov't-sale item, so I'm not happy, because it will probably restrain the price. Because I hold a July $35 option, I may get out shortly, even though YPF still seems a good oil-producer to own as stock (not option) for the medium-term, with lots in the ground and production and efficiency rising (according to an analyst).
Print the post Back To Top
Author: JHHJR Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 5 of 12
Subject: Re: YPF Date: 5/15/1998 6:04 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
Oops. I am the author of the 5/15/98 5:47:31AM EDT message titled "YPF". My statement about "...the ASrgentine (sic) shares" was incorrect and should probably have been "the London shares". I am a new Motley Fool Boards-user and have not yet found out how to delete a message of mine. I've sent an e-mail inquiry about deleting. Sorry.

Print the post Back To Top
Author: finkbarton Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 6 of 12
Subject: Re: YPF Date: 6/1/1998 5:18 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
I really believe than every judgment related to YPF value (net asset value, DCF, or whatever) should state the implicit "equilibrium" value of oil. I find the company's value highly sensitive to oil price fluctuations. For example, a one dollar more expensive oil price gives the company with additional 45-50 million of cash. A rule-of-thumb calculation (10% discount rate, etc., etc.) implies a 5% higher value for the stock. You can refine the analysis (I did it) but you will get roughly the same figures.
Related to your stock option, I do not think it will get to $ 35 at any point soon (sorry for my friends at Salomon)

Print the post Back To Top
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (3) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Next Thread
Advertisement