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No. of Recommendations: 10
. At present I am not convinced that QCOM has this IP thing nailed. But I welcome all input to the contrary.

QCOM is convinced. If you are not, I suggest you invest elsewhere.
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Let me add a big hearty DITTO to that. But since this is TMF let me sprinkle some numbers for the DD crowd. QCOM has roughtly 150 CDMA patents with close to 500 pending, and then more on the horizon. Anything that is remotely related to their CDMA technology is "covered and smoothered". (credit to Waffle House).

Furthermore let me offer some insights into contracts that may not be "intuitively obvious", terms of the license agreements include stipulations and detailed understandings as to what is QCOM technology (and any and all QCOM related/derivative technologies), thus nobody is going to get a FREE ride. Another side benefit is the incrediably rich and detailed market data QCOM collects as the foundation for royalty collection. Many people are unaware of the incrediable intangible benefits Microsoft reaped in this regard with it OEM OS deals. Lets just say that this benefit was so powerful that it was the basis for the devious "per-cpu" licensing stipulations they just got busted for. Additionally IMHO the fees QCOM is commanding and getting are very reasonable, if anything toooooooooo reasonable.

Early in this thread I made a analogy with the development of the power grid, please consider that QCOM has additional services ready to be licensed and deployed on top of standard cdma voice/data services.

Also someone earlied stated that QCOM might be a mere 300lbs Gorilla, but Nokia will be a 900lbs Gorilla. I totally disagree, perhaps it may be QCOM 900lbs and Nokia 100lbs. One test for the weight of a Gorilla (someone should trademark this: "The Gorilla Scale", cobrand'em with Etrade and flood Targets with'em for the XMas season, and when you step on the scale it should say "Whose the Mac-Daddy"?) ok back to the topic, is how easily a competitor can marginalize and penetrate your marketspace. Consider this set of circumstances: Portable Wireless Broadband data servies will be a slam-dunk, but consumers might reject what we now call the handset as the client device. Next week we should see the introduction of new wireless Webpads, and web-pdas. If this happens QCOM still wins and wins big, and the handset guys begin a painful scramble for relevance.

When a technology starts to becomes a cultural phenomena and then when its adoption becomes a cultural expectation the rules of the marketplace change dramatically. This is the risk that Nokia faces. QCOM is the arms dealer for all portable wireless broadband (bar-none, really folks its game-over, there are no competitors and more importantly there won't be any) QCOM doesn't face the consumer's "choice of client" risk, in fact it reaps additional monies because its selling IP and chips, etc. to everybody; phones, pads, pdas, cars, motorcycles, bicycles, whatever. Some mfgs will lose out, but their devices will still be full of QCOM technology.

I'm a true believer, I've drunk the kool-aid, as they say, the wireless space (and the optical) is on the cusp of a trillion dollar explosion. So buckle your seatbelts and hangon baby.

I say let the wealth creation begin.
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