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No. of Recommendations: 3
1) You seem to misunderstand the concept of 'long-term investing.' 7 years is not it. Nor is 5. At the end of 1994, VTSMX was 11.27. Now it is 28.62. That's a very nice return.

ignore inflation accounting for another 2-3

2) That doesn't make any sense. Inflation is not the cause of the market's rise. Yes, it makes your real return less than your nominal return, *exactly* like every other asset class.

and also ignore that we are at a historically high P/E right now.

3) The SPX is nowhere near a historically high PE [62 in Spring 2002]. In fact, it is 19.6 today, much, much lower than the monthly average of the past ten years, which was 27.47 according to bloomberg.


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